Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots (6:30pm ET – San Francisco, CA)
Super Bowl Sunday is an exciting day as a sports bettor. It can also be overwhelming. There are so many markets, so many angles and everyone has an opinion. I’ve tried to keep my card pretty tight this year, and will share each of my plays below with some analysis. Pick and choose what you like and good luck betting the game!
Super Bowl Best Bets
Rhamondre Stevenson had some fumbling issues earlier in the season, and then missed time with an injury in November. But since returning, he’s been a huge piece of the Patriots’ success on offense. Drake Maye has trusted his running back in the receiving game, despite seeing less opportunities the last couple of games.
Stevenson was unable to bring in either of his targets in the AFC Championship Game in Denver, and while he caught all four targets against Houston, they went for just 11 total yards. Prior to that, Stevenson went for at least 22 receiving yards in six straight games, topping his 23.5 prop in five of them. He also has a long reception for for at least 15 yards in all six of those games.
Targeting opposing running backs in the passing game against Seattle has been a strong angle this season. The Seahawks rank last in the NFL in targets (7.47) and receptions (5.79) allowed to the position, and are bottom-five in receiving yards allowed to running backs at nearly 40. Good buy-low spot on Stevenson off a couple of poor games in an ideal matchup.
NFL Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115) & Long Reception OVER 11.5 Yards (-115)
I’ll double-dip on the running back receiving props on the Patriots side, mostly due to just how depressed the number is on TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson caught 35 passes for 221 yards during the regular season, going for five or more receiving yards on 11 occasions. However, he’s been targeted just three times in the postseason, recording two receptions for seven yards.
The rookie was on the field for just four snaps in the AFCCG in Denver, so his props in the Super Bowl are priced for a minimal role. But the conditions have not been favorable for his skillset during New England’s playoff run, and that should change on Sunday night in San Francisco. The Pats will need to break some big plays to win this game, and we just went over all the reasons that Seattle is prone to allow big plays through the air to running backs.
I’d be surprised if Josh McDaniels didn’t have a play or two drawn up to get the ball in Henderson’s hands, with home run potential.
NFL Pick: TreVeyon Henderson OVER 4.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Drake Maye threw for 179 yards against the Texans and just 86 yards in his last game in Denver. On top of that, rumors have been swirling about the health of Maye’s throwing shoulder, which had him on the injury report leading up to the game. But both of those low passing marks came in games with pretty poor weather, and Maye has now had two full weeks to get his shoulder ready for the Seahawks.
I think both of those factors have opened up some value on Maye’s passing yardage prop. DraftKings Sportsbook opened this one up at 226.5 and it was bet down to as low as 220.5. Removing the last two playoff games, Maye was 15-3 to the over on passing yards at this number in the regular season and Wild Card win over the Chargers.
I also feel Maye’s prop is obtainable in most game scripts here. Unless the Pats build their lead with defensive/special teams scores, they are going to need to pass the ball to have success. And if Seattle jumps out to a lead, Maye will have to be aggressive to get his team back in it. The Pats have made big plays in the passing game all season when the conditions have allowed, and I think that continues in the Super Bowl.
NFL Pick: Drake Maye OVER 222.5 Passing Yards (-111)
One of the big playmakers downfield for Maye has been Kayshon Boutte. Prior to getting taken out of the game in Denver, Boutte caught bombs of 32 yards vs. the Texans and 42 yards vs. the Chargers. He also had seven regular season games with a long reception over 18.5 yards, despite missing a few games due to injury (he’s 9-8 to the over at 18.5 on the season).
Seattle has a strong defense in many ways, but has been prone to giving up some big plays through the air against good offenses. We just saw it in the NCF Championship Game, with Matthew Stafford hitting three different pass catchers for plays of at least 35 yards. I’ll back the standard over on Boutte’s long reception here, but if you want to get aggressive I don’t have some ladders or some game parlays. Boutte long reception 25+ (+210), 30+ (+352) and 30+ with a touchdown (+1100) could all be worth a long shot.
NFL Pick: Kayshon Boutte Long Reception OVER 18.5 Yards (-115)
Rashid Shaheed is going to have plenty of chances to put his stamp on this game with a big play. The speedster will return kickoffs, punts, get some looks in the running game on reverses and be a target in the receiving game. Shaheed returned the opening kickoff of the playoffs for Seattle for a touchdown and took a rushing attempt 30 yards in the same game against the Niners. He also caught a 51-yard pass in the NFC Championship Game.
There are plenty of ways I would not want to fade Shaheed in this game — receiving yards, long reception, rushing yards all being examples. But since Shaheed touches the ball in so many ways, it has taken away from his volume as a receiver during his time in Seattle. He saw the bulk of his WR production during the first half of the season with the Saints. Since being traded to the Seahawks, Shaheed has only recorded two or more receptions three times in 11 games.
If we want to look at recent production, Shaheed has stayed under 1.5 receptions in each of his last five games, totaling three receptions during that span. The 51-yard bomb I reference against the Rams is actually his only reception this postseason. Shaheed very well could make an enormous play in the Super Bowl that changes the game, but I don’t think it’ll be by hauling in multiple receptions.
NFL Pick: Rashid Shaheed UNDER 1.5 Receptions (+108)
Kenneth Walker is a good running back that will see a bit more volume in this game due to Zach Charbonnet’s injury. But the Seahawks will mix in some other players in the ground game, and also look to use Walker some through the air, which has been successful recently. What hasn’t been successful recently is trying to run against the Patriots when Milton Williams is on the field.
In the 15 games Williams has lined up on the defensive line for New England, no opposing starting running back has topped 58 rushing yards. Those starting backs averaged barely over 35 rushing yards per game. In the postseason, no opposing back has topped 37 rushing yards, with an average of 28.3 per game for the starter.
Opposing teams as a whole are averaging 71.3 rushing yards against the Patriots in the playoffs, which is essentially Walker’s number on his own for the Super Bowl. Walker has stayed under 73 rushing yards in 12 out of 19 games this season, and I think we see number 13 in the finale.
NFL Pick: Kenneth Walker UNDER 72.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Williams is more of a run stuffer, but did register 3.5 sacks during the regular season, despite missing some games. He has two sacks in the postseason, both coming against the Chargers, including the game-clincher. If Seattle’s offense has a weakness, it’s the interior of the offensive line, which will be feeling pressure from Williams all game.
Sam Darnold has been sacked 32 times in 19 games this season, but was better protected earlier in the year. Five of those sacks have come in the last two postseason games, and the Seahawks were barely forced to drop back to pass against the 49ers. Including the two postseason games, Darnold has now taken 14 total sacks over the last five games alone.
Williams is a big-game player, and sacked Patrick Mahomes twice in the Super Bowl last season. I think he gets home again for a second consecutive Super Bowl Sunday.
NFL Pick: Milton Williams OVER 0.25 Sacks (+157)
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