According to an ABC News article from 2021, the team that scored first in NFL games from 2000 to 2020 won said game 64.5% of the time. I know it’s not exactly breaking news to suggest that getting an early lead is important, yet I wanted to illustrate just how crucial finding the end zone first can be under normal circumstances — let alone in the Super Bowl.
Still, the first touchdown in an NFL contest can mean different things to different people. It’s one thing to the players. It’s one thing to the fans. It’s one thing to the bettors. It’s the latter we’ll be focusing on here.
Who will score the first touchdown in tonight’s Super Bowl matchup between the Seahawks and the Patriots? Let’s break down the odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook and make a couple picks.
Seahawks vs. Patriots First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Jaxon Smith-Njigba First Touchdown Scorer (+500)
This is not a pick that is going to shock anyone, but it’s hard to steer away from the raw volume that Smith-Njigba sees each and every time he suits up. JSN led the Seahawks during the regular season with a 27.4% red zone target share, yet it’s not like the Ohio State product needs to be near the goal line to find the end zone. In fact, Smith-Njigba led the NFL with three receiving touchdowns of over 40 yards. Basically, he’s a threat to score anywhere on the field, which makes these +500 odds awfully tempting. It’s not like the former first-round pick has been slowed down by the increased difficultly of playoff matchups, either. Smith-Njigba scored a touchdown in both the Divisional Round and the NFC Championship Game. He also saw more than twice as many targets (12) as any other Seattle skill-position player against the Rams. He’s a ball magnet in high-leverage situations.
Hunter Henry First Touchdown Scorer (+1400)
Henry’s had a relatively quiet run in the postseason, though he did score the only touchdown — and therefore the first touchdown — in the Patriots’ win over the Chargers in the Wild Card round. However, during the regular season, Henry was much more noticeable. The veteran TE ranked first on New England in receiving touchdowns (7), and second to only Stefon Diggs (+1500) in catches (60), targets (87) and receiving yards (768). Henry was also a mainstay as a red zone threat, with his 22 targets inside the 20-yard line being good enough for the sixth-most of any player in the NFL. Specific to the Super Bowl, I feel like this projects as a great matchup for the tight end. Seattle allows the fewest opponent rushing touchdowns per game (0.5), so assuming New England’s opening score is through the air makes sense. On top of that, the Seahawks conceded the fourth-most targets per game to opposing TEs (8.5). It’s all lining up.
