To the surprise of no one, the Super Bowl is one of the busiest betting days on the sports calendar. However, when everyone has their own take on which team has the edge, it can be confusing. The Seahawks, after two straight playoff wins, enter as the favorites. However, the 14-win Patriots have defied expectations all season. In short, this is a difficult matchup to predict.
With that being said, you don’t need to bet on one team over the other. Instead, a solid alternative is the point total. Predicting the amount of scoring during Sunday’s contest might make more sense.
Below is my take on whether Super Bowl 60 will go over or under 45.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Case for the over
Despite a lackluster postseason, Drake Maye is still a force to be reckoned with at quarterback. The MVP runner-up has been a victim of circumstance, as well. New England has played its last two games in cold weather. That includes a blizzard in Denver during the AFC Championship game that seriously hindered scoring. However, kickoff in Santa Clara is expected to hover around the mid-60s. That’s a drastically different environment than anything the Patriots have dealt with so far. This is also a gut feeling; Maye is simply due for an above-average performance.
The Seahawks are averaging 5.9 yards per play, tied for the third-best mark in football. Their ability to strike quick, due in part to several high-end weapons, makes for an ideal shootout. Seattle’s 50.3% time of possession percentage is only good enough for 14th in the league. Ultimately, this group prefers to strike quickly rather than churn out long, methodical drives. Ideally, this speeds up a more deliberate New England offense, as well.
Case for the under
This postseason, defense has been the main catalyst for New England. The AFC East champions have held the Chargers, Texans and Broncos to a combined 26 points. That’s the kind of play that’s led to championship hardware in years past. A stellar defensive line and capable secondary give opposing quarterbacks little to work with.
New England is the NFL’s highest-scoring first half offense, averaging 16.5 points per game. However, Seattle wields the league’s lowest-scoring first half defense (7.5 PPG). If the Seahawks prevent the Patriots from getting off to a hot start, this one could get ugly. Seattle is holding opponents to an NFL-low 3.8 yards per carry. The Pats rank tenth in that category at 4.1 YPC. Even that number is misleading due to five missed games for standout defensive tackle Milton Williams. If this game becomes one-dimensional, it’s difficult to see both Darnold and Maye dicing up talented secondaries.
Best Bet: Over 45.5 points (-110)
As previously mentioned, the Patriots have been phenomenal on defense this postseason. However, brutal weather has played a huge role in limiting scoring. Sunday’s contest promises to be different, especially with two weeks of rest. On the flip side, Seattle’s defense, while elite, has engaged in several shootouts this season. That includes a 31-27 NFC Championship Game victory over the Rams. Assuming Maye plays better, anything around 20 points feels reasonable for the AFC champs. That alone could be enough for the over to cash.
