Less than 24 hours out from Super Bowl 60, the hype is hitting a fever pitch. The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots both dominated the competition in the regular season and fought through tough postseason schedules to get here. Now, two of the NFL’s highest-scoring offenses go head-to-head in Santa Clara, California.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Seattle is favored by 4.5 points with a game total of 45.5 combined points.
Which team will score the most touchdowns in Super Bowl 60?
Most TDs prop bet for Super Bowl 60
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the line for each team’s touchdown totals sits at 2.5 touchdowns for each. For Seattle, over 2.5 TDs is favored at -145 odds; for New England, under 2.5 is the favored side at -188 odds.
The market we’re going to focus on in particular here is “Most TDs,” which can be found under the team totals section on DraftKings Sportsbook. As the line stands, the Seahawks are favored to score the most touchdowns in this game with -170 odds while the Patriots are listed at +135.
Much like the odds indicate, I’m quite bullish on Seattle scoring the most touchdowns in this game. Both of these teams have touchdown averages that are incredibly close, with the Seahawks scoring 3.1 per game (seventh-most) and the Patriots sitting with a slight edge at 3.2 per contest (fifth-best). However, we’ll look at a more in-depth level here.
In the playoffs, these offenses have largely looked entirely different. Seattle scored five touchdowns in the Divisional Round against the San Francisco 49ers, four of which came on offense and one of which came via special teams. They blew out their opponent in that game, then emerged with a close win over the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game during the following week. In that one, the Seahawks scored four touchdowns on offense, bringing their playoff total to nine trips to the end zone in two games, one of which came against an elite defense.
As for the Patriots, the offense hasn’t exactly been humming. New England scored just one touchdown in the Wild Card win over the Los Angeles Chargers, though the team followed it up with four touchdowns against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round — three of which came on offense with one defensive score. However, the Pats scored just one touchdown against the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. Sure, weather played a part in that, but the team’s grand total through three playoff games sits at just six house calls.
There’s a clear difference between the performances of each offense through the postseason sample so far. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye hasn’t played at his best either, staying under 200 passing yards in two of the three games and showing few signs of the player who paced the league in completion percentage in the regular season, too. Unless he can shake off this relative slump against a formidable defense, Seattle should win the touchdown battle.
Here’s a snippet from my article over whether the Seahawks will cover the spread which further hammers home the point:
That factor is one of the main reasons the Seahawks are capable of covering in this game. Seattle ranks first in points per game allowed and seventh in yards per game allowed, also holding opponents to the lowest third-down conversion rate and fifth-lowest red-zone scoring percentage in the league. Those marks all include the playoff sample. Bettors should also consider that the Seahawks finished the regular season with the NFL’s best rating in defensive DVOA along with the second-lowest total EPA allowed and EPA/play. This is a dominant defense which New England simply may not be able to crack.
One more point — the Patriots love to attack downfield more than most teams. Maye’s aDOT of 9.5 ranks third among all NFL quarterbacks, plus he finished the regular season with an NFL-high 8.9 yards per attempt and 9.46 air yards per attempt. Meanwhile, the Seattle defense gives up the lowest aDOT of any team at just 6.94. With how the Seahawks take away the deep ball, they should be able to limit their opponents’ effectiveness. In turn, their own offense, should win the touchdown battle handily in Super Bowl 60.
