The PFL Lightweight Champion, Usman Nurmagomedov, is defending his title against Alfie Davis in the Main Event of today’s PFL Road to Dubai card. Nurmagomedov defeated Paul Hughes in his previous contest to win the PFL’s new Lightweight world title. Meanwhile, Davis beat Gadzhi Rabadanov to win the World Tournament in August 2025.
Check out my best bet for the Main Event of PFL Road to Dubai between Usman Nurmagomedov vs. Alfie Davis.
Over 3.5 Rounds (+114)
Usman Nurmagomedov is a cousin of Khabib and Umar’s brother. Although they aren’t blood-related, UFC Welterweight Champion Islam Makhachev and Nurmagomedov grew up and trained with him. Khabib will be in Usman’s corner for this fight, as he has been in the past. In his career, Usman Nurmagomedov has a perfect 20-0 undefeated record with 14 wins by submission or knockout.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Nurmagomedov is a -1850 favorite with Davis being a +900 underdog. The over/under of this fight is 3.5 rounds, with the under being -145.
Although Hughes gave Nurmagomedov a tough test in their two fights, the champion proved he is just a step above the competition. This is a major step up in competition for Davis, as Nurmagomedov is the more competitive fighter and has plenty of big-fight experience.
Since Nurmagomedov is such a massive favorite, my favorite play in this fight is taking the over 3.5 rounds at +114. That is because Nurmagomedov’s last three fights have gone the distance. Also, five of Nurmagomedov’s last six bouts have gone the distance. That includes his fight against Brent Primus at Bellator 300, which went to a decison but was later overturned as a no-contest.
