The Mississippi State Bulldogs host the No. 21 Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday afternoon in an SEC college basketball matchup. The game tips off at 12:00 p.m. EST in Starkville, Mississippi.
The Razorbacks are listed as 6.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at O/U 161.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and pick for this SEC college basketball matchup.
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas prediction, preview
Arkansas is ranked 21st in the country in the latest AP poll. John Calipari’s Razorbacks are doing well in SEC play, sporting a 6-3 conference record, just one game out of first place. The Razorbacks are one of the most explosive teams in the country and can score in bunches. They rank 10th in the nation in offensive rating, averaging 88.7 PPG this season. Arkansas is led by freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr., who is just one of 28 players in the nation averaging over 20 PPG.
Mississippi State has not found the same success in conference play. The Bulldogs are 3-6 in SEC play, firmly in 13th place in the conference. They started SEC play strongly, with back-to-back wins over Texas and Oklahoma. However, they have now lost six of their past seven games and have another tough one ahead against Arkansas. To make matters worse, Mississippi State has not had much of a home-court advantage this season. The Bulldogs have a 7-4 record, the worst home winning percentage of any SEC team.
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas pick
My best bet for this game is for Arkansas to cover as 6.5-point favorites. The Razorbacks have one of the best individual scorers in the country, Darius Acuff Jr., but they also have plenty of role players who can score the basketball. The Razorbacks are the best three-point shooting team in the SEC, making 49.8% of their deep balls this season.
Arkansas should be able to put up a big number against a Mississippi State team that is giving up 78.2 points per game this season, the second-most in the SEC. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up. They rank 116th in the nation in offensive rating. As long as Arkansas shuts down Josh Hubbard, Mississippi State will struggle to score enough to keep up with Arkansas.
Mississippi State has not defended its home court well this season. In two of their past three home games, the Bulldogs lost by 15 or more points, and they lost the third game as well. Arkansas should dictate the pace in this game and put up a number that Mississippi State simply can’t reach.
