Illinois vs. Michigan State College Basketball prediction, preview
We’re entering “must-win” territory for Michigan State, which enters Saturday on a two-game losing streak. Sparty entered last Friday night’s showdown against Michigan on a seven-game winning streak, fueled by its defense. They were 19-2 with a chance to make a big statement at home, but the wheels have started to fall off since.
Michigan State scored just 26 points in the first half against the Wolverines, and then were forced to speed up in the second half, ultimately falling short in a comeback attempt. The same thing happened on Wednesday night, only this time against a not so great Minnesota team. Sparty went on the road and scored a mere 21 points in the first half, with another late comeback winding up useless.
Initially, I was ready to give Tom Izzo’s squad a pass for last Tuesday night at Rutgers, given it was a clear lookahead spot to Michigan. But now I’m starting to see more of a trend. MSU went out and scored just 28 points in the first half, and wound up extremely fortunate to win the game in overtime. But that all came against a dreadful Rutgers team, and took everything Michigan State had. The Spartans could easily be taking a three-game losing streak into Saturday, and the Fighting Illi team waiting for them has no problem silencing a home crowd.
Illinois is a perfect 6-0 on the road this season, including 5-1 ATS (only failed cover was when laying 14.5 at Penn State). The road wins just continue to get more impressive for the Illini, knocking off Purdue on January 24 and then Nebraska on February 1, both as an underdog. Sure, Michigan State has a slight defensive edge in this game, and home court on top of it. But Illinois’ No. 1 ranked offense in the country has a massive advantage over the Spartans on the other side of the ball, and the margins aren’t even comparable.
Michigan State likes to bully you around in the paint, and that also is going to prove difficult against Illinois, which has the most size in college basketball. The Illini continue to ride the emergence of their rising star in Keaton Wagler, who has thrived since Kylan Boswell went out of the lineup. On the flip side, the engine that makes the Spartans go is in some hot water. Jeremy Fears has been called out for some dirty plays in recent games, particularly against Minnesota. Izzo has even threatened to bench Fears if his behavior does not change. We’ll see how Fears responds on Saturday, but he may have a short leash, and his reputation will have the officials keeping a close eye.
While I understand the desperation spot for Michigan State, I’m not convinced this team is good enough on offense to do anything about it. I might look to fade Sparty in the first half like the trends suggest, but I’ll start by simply backing Illinois to continue its road dominance against a struggling offense.
