Duke vs. North Carolina College Basketball prediction, preview
North Carolina is 13-0 at home. Duke is 7-0 on the road. Perfect records on the line when these two teams clash in college basketball’s most historic rivalry on Saturday night in Chapel Hill. This should be good.
Credit to the Tar Heels for rebounding from a terrible west coast trip that could have derailed their season. UNC dropped road games as a favorite at Stanford and Cal, but is 4-0 since, including a win as a road dog against Virginia. North Carolina is 3-1 ATS over this recent winning streak, losing some momentum at the end of a win over Syracuse this past week. The Heels were up more than 30 points at home, but ultimately failed to cover -11.5.
This will be the first time this season that UNC has been priced as a home underdog. In fact, there’s only one other instance this season that UNC hasn’t been a double digit favorite at home — priced as a 2.5-point favorite over Kansas in just the second game of the season.
Meanwhile, Duke has been favored in all seven of its road games, going 6-1 ATS in those seven victories. The Blue Devils haven’t just been winning and covering on the road, they’ve been dominating. Duke is winning on the road by an average of 19.3 points, and covering by 6.6 points per game. It hasn’t been all ACC cupcakes on the schedule either. The Blue Devils have been a short 1.5-point road favorite twice thus far — a six point win at Michigan State and a nine-point win at Louisville.
Duke trailed both of those games at halftime, but then had a sensational second half, creating an angle to keep in mind if the Blue Devils wins up trailing at halftime in Chapel Hill. If we want to look at recent history in the rivalry, Duke has taken three of the last four matchups played in Chapel Hill. The Blue Devils on those three by margins of five, 13 and 20 points.
Ultimately, I think Duke is just on a level that the Tar Heels are yet to see this season. When UNC faced Kansas, it was early November and the Jayhawks weren’t nearly on the level they are now. Michigan State also handled the Heels with ease, and Sparty has proven to have plenty of its own issues.
However, just to take something from that game, Michigan State ranks as the top defense that North Carolina has faced this season at No. 4 on KenPom. Sparty held the Tar Heels to just 58 points when they played. That’ll change on Saturday when UNC goes up against the No. 3 defense in the nation, that being Duke.
The Blue Devils also rank top-five on the offensive end of the ball, creating elite balance that the Heels will have trouble matching. While Carolina ranks 18th on offense, Duke will present issues defensively. UNC ranks just 58th defensively, and won’t be able to create as many problems for an elite Duke offense.
Give me the Blue Devils to hand the Tar Heels their first loss of the season with some margin here, and if the home team happens to be leading at halftime, I’ll take a look at adding some in-game Duke.
