Tipping off at 2:00 p.m. ET across a loaded slate of college basketball, the Baylor Bears will face off with the Iowa State Cyclones.
These two Big 12 teams have faced off 51 times in their history. Iowa State has won 26 of these matchups, including the last three times these two programs have faced off and six of their last seven. This also includes facing off on January 7 this year, which resulted in a 70-60 Iowa State victory.
Looking at the odds for this matchup, Iowa State enters as a 15.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Baylor holds +1200 odds of pulling the outright upset, with the game total set at 152.5
Baylor vs. Iowa State prediction, preview
The Baylor Bears hold a 13-9 record this season and have gone 3-7 in Big 12 conference play. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins over West Virginia and Colorado, but have dropped seven of their last 10. On the season, Baylor has gone 9-12 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 11 of their 21 games.
Scott Drew’s squad is scoring the 37th-most points per game at 84.1 on average. Baylor also ranks 38th in offensive rating, 40th in team field goal percentage, 72nd in three-point percentage, and 50th in rebounds per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 75.0 points per game against the Bears, which ranks 219th of the 365 qualifying teams. They also rank 178th in defensive rating, 131st in opponent field goal percentage, and 246th in opponent three-point percentage.
Cameron Carr headlines the production, posting averages of 19.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 40.5% on three-point attempts. Tounde Yessoufou is not far behind, averaging 17.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per game. Obi Agbim and Dan Skillings Jr. each also average in double figures, with Skillings Jr. posting a team-high 6.5 rebounds per game (though he missed Baylor’s last game). Isaac Williams, Michael Rataj, and Caden Powell each also play notable roles on the roster.
The Iowa State Cyclones have looked the part of National Championship threats on both sides of the ball this season. They hold a 20-2 record on the year and are 7-2 in Big 12 conference play. Their pair of losses have come against Kansas and Cincinnati, but they enter this matchup on a four-game winning streak. On the season, Iowa State has gone 13-8-1 against the spread, and the game total is 11-11 to the over/under.
T.J. Otzelberger’s squad has impressed on both sides of the ball this season. The Cyclones rank 19th in scoring, averaging 86.5 points per game. They also rank seventh in offensive rating, eighth in field goal percentage, second in three-point percentage, and 10th in assists per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 64.8 points per game against them, which ranks 15th in the country. Iowa State also ranks ninth in defensive rating, 63rd in opponent field goal percentage, and 81st in opponent three-point percentage.
Milan Momcilovic headlines the production with averages of 18.6 points and 3.1 rebounds, attempting 7.4 three-point attempts per game and connecting on a D1-leading 54.0% on these perimeter shots. Joshua Jefferson is not far behind with 17.3 points per game and 5.1 assists, shooting 40.5% on three-point attempts himself. Tamin Lipsey adds 13.4 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.4 rebounds, while leading the Big-12 with 2.4 steals per game. Killyan Toure is the lone other player averaging in double figures, adding 10.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. Blake Buchanan, Jamarion Batemon, and Nate Heise also play notable roles in the rotation.
Baylor vs. Iowa State pick, best bet
Iowa State picked up a 70-60 victory in the first match between these two teams. This matchup took place on Baylor’s home court, on which the Bears put up a respectable fight. They held a lead for 42% of the matchup and cut the lead to six with 4:08 remaining after falling behind, but were unable to fully retake the advantage and produce a win. Baylor shooting just 31% from the floor and 19% on three-point attempts ultimately prevented the Bears from getting a positive result. Iowa State covered the four-point spread in this matchup.
This second matchup will now take place on Iowa State’s home court. Iowa State is 6-5-1 against the spread at home this season. In contrast, Baylor has gone 2-4 against the spread on the road, 1-3 ATS as a road underdog, and 0-4 ATS against ranked opponents.
It was an admirable effort from Baylor in the first matchup between these two teams. But there is a notable gap in talent between these two rosters that has only been put more on display in recent weeks. There have been plenty of examples of Baylor teams having a place in the conversation for the best teams in college basketball, but this is not a season in which this is the case. Baylor’s inability to defend will be problematic in this matchup, and Iowa State had little issue keeping its opponents’ offensive attack under control in the first game. The 30.6% the Bears shot from the field and 18.5% on three-point attempts each marked their worst shooting splits of the season.
Expect Iowa State to be the better team on both sides of the ball in this matchup and for this game to get ugly quick. It will take a heroic performance from Cameron Carr to keep Baylor in this matchup. But the Cyclones managed to keep Carr to 17 points on 5-of-13 shooting in the first game. Expect a similar level of defensive attention.
It felt as if Baylor threw their best fastball in the first matchup between these two teams, and it still resulted in a 10-point loss. As they face off for the second time, count on Iowa State managing to push the margin far wider and produce a more dominant performance. The Cyclones enter this matchup coming off four victories of 13+ points. Their +21.7 average margin of victory ranks second across all of college basketball. Count on the Cyclones dominating on both sides of the ball and covering the 15.5-point victory tonight.
