Alabama vs. Auburn College Basketball prediction, preview
Alabama is 2-2 on the road so far in SEC play, winning both as the road favorite, and losing both when priced as the road underdog. The wins came over Mississippi State and Oklahoma (narrowly), which rank near or at the bottom of the conference. The losses came at Vanderbilt by six points and at Florida by 23 points, with the Crimson Tide failing to cover either game.
While Bama has followed up its losses with bounce-back wins, most of them have come against lesser competition. The Tide rebounded from Sunday’s loss in Gainesville at home on Wednesday night, taking care of Texas A&M in a close game. But Nate Oats failed to cover as an 8.5-point favorite, dropping the Tide to 4-9 ATS since mid-December (2-6 ATS in their last eight SEC games).
Simply put, Alabama has the talent to beat anybody, but sloppy play continues to haunt them. The Tide play at a rapid pace, and when shots don’t fall, issues arise. Bama is not a good rebounding team, and their defensive rating on KenPom continues to decline by the game.
Auburn is off a loss last Saturday night at a thriving Tennessee team, but has had the full week off to prepare for this rivalry game at home. The Tigers are 9-1 at home this season, with the lone loss coming to Texas A&M in a game that Auburn had what looked like a game-winner wiped off the board by the officials.
Auburn’s most comparable opponent its seen at home to Bama from a market standpoint was when Arkansas came in, and the Tigers ran them out of the building by 22 points. We’ve also seen just how high the ceiling on the Tigers can be when they are at their best, going down to Gainesville and knocking off the Gators in a game they pretty much controlled wire-to-wire.
I like this Alabama team, but I do not trust them. It’s a tough spot for the Tide, and shapes up to be a really strong spot for the Tigers, who should have a rowdy crowd on Saturday afternoon. Ultimately, I just don’t believe Bama can get enough stops to win this game. Since Auburn knocked off Arkansas, it’s giving up an average of 73.7 points per game against its last seven SEC opponents. Bama just gave up 100 points to Florida, and followed it up by surrendering 97 to A&M.
I like Auburn to hang a big number here and earn the victory at home.
