The last time the Seattle Seahawks faced the New England Patriots with the Lombardi Trophy on the line, the ending was one that Seahawks fans would surely rather have back.
On second and goal at the one-yard line while trailing by four points, Seattle opted to attempt a pass to Ricardo Lockette instead of running it with Marshawn Lynch. New England’s Malcolm Butler intercepted it, sealing the game and the Super Bowl, which was the Patriots’ first title in a decade.
This entire Super Bowl matchup feels like deja vu, so in honor of the rematch, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering odds on whether or not the Seahawks will pass it from inside New England’s one-yard line on Sunday. Right now, Seattle is +550 to attempt such a pass and +1100 to complete it for a touchdown.
For the game, the Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites, with the point total set to 45.5.
Below, I’ll break down this passing special’s odds and offer a verdict as to whether or not they’ll do so.
Will the Seahawks attempt a pass from inside the Patriots’ one-yard line?
For Seattle to attempt a pass within New England’s one-yard line, it’ll actually have to get down inside the one-yard line, limiting the subset of plays that would qualify for this prop bet. This season, the Seahawks had a total of seven one-yard scores. Notably, all seven of those short scores came via the run, with Kenneth Walker III scoring twice, Zach Charbonnet four times, and AJ Barner once. Seattle’s shortest passing touchdown was two yards.
However, it wouldn’t entirely be without precedent for Darnold to pass it from the one-yard line. In the second quarter of the Seahawks’ Week 4 win over the Arizona Cardinals, Charbonnet was stuffed on first down and Darnold threw an incomplete pass on second down. In Week 18, Darnold was also sacked by San Francisco 49ers linebacker Tatum Bethune after dropping back at the one-yard line. While Darnold’s two drop-backs constitute only two of Seattle’s 10 plays within the one-yard line, it’s at least clear that passing plays are in the playbook.
For his part, Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald was coy when asked about the possibility, asking jokingly if he had Lynch in his backfield.
It wouldn’t be without precedent for a one-yard passing touchdown to be scored against the 2025 Patriots, either. New England only gave up three touchdowns from the one-yard line, but one was a pass from Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to wide receiver Drake London despite Bijan Robinson’s being an even more noteworthy goal-line threat than Walker. The Patriots also gave up four passing touchdowns from the two-yard line, and though those wouldn’t cash the bet, it’s noteworthy that other coaches have found success through the air from short range.
Scheme-wise, it would make sense. New England was somewhat better at defending the run than the pass, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns and the 15th-most passing touchdowns. Plus, while Walker has been pretty efficient no matter the direction, he was used predominantly around the edge and ran halfback dives relatively infrequently, with the now-injured Charbonnet the primary back in goal line situations. However, because neither of the Patriots’ starting defensive tackles has been particularly dominant against the run, running it in with Walker should still be Seattle’s primary option, and it probably won’t get multiple opportunities from inside the one.
Verdict: No
