The Seattle Seahawks worked hard to get here. After securing the NFC’s No. 1 seed, they’ve faced a gauntlet of division rivals in the postseason. A dominant win over the San Francisco 49ers was followed by a difficult battle against the Los Angeles Rams, and now, it’s time to put it all on the line against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 60.
Seattle is a 4.5-point favorite with the game total set at 45.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Star wideout Jaxon-Smith Njigba is sure to play a major role in this game. Will he finish as the leader in receptions on the box score?
Will Jaxon-Smith Njigba catch the most passes in SB 60?
A stellar regular season cemented Smith-Njigba’s place among the NFL’s most elite players at the wideout position. He saw 157 targets, catching 119 of those for 1,793 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Respectively, those numbers place him fourth in targets, third in receptions, first in yardage and fourth in touchdown catches among all wide receivers. He also graded out with the second-best receiving grade of any wideout, per PFF’s rankings. There’s no denying the talent, and Smith-Njigba put it on further display in the NFC Championship Game with a stellar 10 catches for 153 yards and a touchdown to send the Seahawks to the Super Bowl.
Granted, the most important matchup imaginable does come against a tough secondary. The Patriots have some stellar defensive backs such as Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones and Carlton Davis III, who all rank 28th or better in PFF coverage score. Overall, New England also falls fifth as a unit in the same statistic with the 11th-lowest defensive EPA/pass and ninth-fewest passing yards allowed.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Smith-Njigba’s O/U on receptions at 6.5, the highest of any player in this game. Beyond that, he’s also a -146 favorite to be the game leader in receptions. Can he do it?
Personally, I’m quite bullish that Smith Njigba can and will haul in the most receptions of any player in Super Bowl 60. Here’s a snippet from my best prop bets that backs up the logic:
Smith-Njigba recorded over 6.5 catches in 13/19 appearances on the full season’s sample and caught an incredible 12 passes in Week 2 against New England as well. Given the target share, it’s clear that Seattle should continue to feed him the ball as the focal point of the attack regardless of how the game script plays out.
The target share mentioned in that excerpt sits at 36.2%, the highest of any player in the entire NFL. He formed a very reliable connection with quarterback Sam Darnold early in the campaign and has only built on that further as time went on. Now, they have the opportunity to put it on display on the biggest stage.
Sure, the New England defense is quite formidable, but that shouldn’t discourage bettors from taking Smith-Njigba to lead the game in catches. He’s practically guaranteed a dominant share of the targets in the Seattle offense, and opposing quarterback Drake Maye largely spreads the ball around without a clear alpha in the hierarchy of his receiving weapons. As if the track record and that factor aren’t enough, Smith-Njigba ranks sixth in the NFL in target rate against man coverage and fourth among wideouts in target rate when the defense generates pressure. Why do those numbers matter?
The Patriots play man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the league while pressuring the quarterback at the sixth-highest mark. The conditions are right for Smith-Njigba to put on a show, whether as a deep threat or a safety blanket for his field general. He should comfortably lead all players in Super Bowl 60 in receptions.
