UConn vs. Saint John’s College Basketball prediction, preview
We’ve got a whopper in the Big East on Friday night at Madison Square Garden. Saint John’s will host UConn in this game, but we know the MSG crowd will be a good mix of fan bases here. Earlier this season, we saw a highly motivated Huskies squad go to Lawrence and knock off Kansas on the road (without starting center Tarris Reed). This reminds me of a similar spot.
Dan Hurley had lost the previous matchup in a close game to the Jayhawks, and was out for revenge when he got the chance back in December. Last season was a down year for the Huskies, and they wound up losing both at home and at MSG to this Johnnie’s squad. Now Hurley and company will be looking for double revenge against Rick Pitino and the Red Storm.
Last season this Saint John’s team had a lot of advantages over UConn. This season it feels like those edges have flipped back in favor of the Huskies. The Red Storm had a terrific balance last season that included elite guard play. This team now lacks that, specifically when it comes to point guard play — Zuby Ejiofor, the senior big man, actually leads the team at 3.3 assists per game.
Saint John’s is built to win on the interior, behind Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins and Dillon Mitchell. However, defending the interior is a strength of the Huskies, who have a top-five overall defense in the country, per KenPom rankings. UConn has great size, and will have an advantage rebounding the ball on both ends. The Huskies play at a much slower pace, so keeping the Johnnie’s out of transition and off the free throw line will be crucial. Limiting the Red Storm to half court offense should lead to more struggles without a true point guard to keep things organized for Pitino.
Outside of the advantages the Huskies will have defending, rebounding and shooting the ball, they are also the far more tested and proven team. Saint John’s best win of the season came over Villanova, with a big drop off to other notable wins over Seton Hall and Baylor. But when stepping up in competition, the Red Storm have come up short, losing to Iowa State, Alabama, Auburn and Kentucky.
Meanwhile, the Huskies have the same two notable Big East wins as Saint John’s, over Nova and Seton Hall. But UConn has also thrived against elite non-conference competition. Outside of a loss to undefeated Arizona, the Huskies have taken down BYU, Illinois, Kansas, Texas and Florida.
I think we see UConn flex its muscles with all eyes in the college basketball world on this Friday night standalone game. The Huskies can make a statement that the Big East belongs to them this season, and avenge that pair of losses from last season to the Red Storm. I backed UConn on the opening moneyline at -125 and posted it to our CBB Board betting group on DraftKings Sportsbook. I’d still be comfortable laying up to 2.5 points, or playing a moneyline out to about -140, depending on what you prefer.
