The dust has officially settled from the NBA trade deadline, and rosters are just about set in stone for the second half of the season. Two Eastern Conference threats will face off tonight to kick this off as the Miami Heat face the Boston Celtics.
The Heat stood pat at the deadline without making any notable moves and will continue with the team that has gotten them this far, despite being heavily linked to the Giannis Antetokounmpo rumors. The Celtics managed to secure a notable upgrade, trading for Nikola Vucevic to bolster their big man rotation. These two teams have faced off twice already this season. Boston has come out on top in each thus far, and they will face off one more time after tonight before the season’s conclusion.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s game, the Celtics are 5.5-point favorites and hold -238 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Heat are +195 underdogs with the game total set at 227.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Friday night matchup.
Heat at Celtics Preview
The Miami Heat hold a 27-25 record, which currently slots them at eighth place in the Eastern Conference. They are 2-3 in their last five games, and last played on Tuesday before tonight’s matchup. On the season, the Heat have gone 29-23 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 27 of their 52 games played.
Miami changed up its offensive identity in a major way coming into the season. They have reduced their pick-and-roll opportunities and lead the NBA in pace. This has led to the Heat ranking third in the league in scoring, at 119.3 points per game, 19th in offensive rating, 19th in field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 118.0 points per game against the Heat, which ranks 22nd in the league. They also rank fourth in defensive rating, seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, and seventh in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Tyler Herro will be sidelined tonight due to his rib injury, leaving Miami without his 21.9 points per game. Norman Powell has led the Heat in scoring this season and earned his first All-Star appearance in the process. The UCLA product is posting averages of 23.0 points and 3.7 rebounds, while shooting 39.2% on three-point attempts. Bam Adebayo adds 18.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, and is attempting a career-high 4.7 three-point attempts per game. Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr, Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larson, and Davion Mitchell are each also playing key roles on the team.
The Boston Celtics entered the season with tempered expectations due to Jayson Tatum remaining sidelined as he recovers from his Achilles tear. But they have outperformed these mild expectations, going 33-18 on the season to this point, and sit in third place in the Eastern Conference. Boston enters this matchup on a four-game winning streak and last played on Wednesday night. On the season, the Celtics have gone 29-22 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in an NBA-leading 32 of their 51 games played.
In contrast to the Heat, the Celtics rank dead last in the NBA in pace. This has resulted in Boston scoring 115.9 points per game, which ranks 14th in the league. They rank second in offensive rating, 16th in field goal percentage, and 10th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring the second-fewest points per game at 108.6 per contest. Boston also ranks 10th in defensive rating, second in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 19th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
In Tatum’s absence, Jaylen Brown has stepped up as the lead option for the Celtics and made a legitimate MVP push for himself. Brown leads the NBA in made field goals per game and averages of 29.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. Payton Pritchard has seen his role called up and is averaging 17.1 points, 5.3 assists, and 4.3 rebounds. Derrick White sees his role shift on a night-to-night basis, but adds 17.3 points, 5.6 assists, and 4.5 rebounds, while Neemias Queta, Jordan Walsh, Sam Hauser, and Luka Garza have also played notable roles. The addition of Nikola Vucevic, who is averaging 16.9 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, will be a notable upgrade in the front court. Vucevic is not currently listed on the injury report, indicating he is expected to make his debut during this three-game homestand, but it has not officially been announced if it will be tonight just yet.
Heat at Celtics Prediction, Best Bet
These are two teams constructed very differently, ranking 1st and 30th in pace. The pace at which this game will be played at will play a significant role in the outcome.
The Celtics produced a comfortable 129-116 victory in the first matchup and edged out the Heat in a 119-114 win in the previous game. Boston covered the 7.5-point spread in the first game and the 2.5-point spread in the second. Home court has not been a massive advantage to Boston this year. While they are 16-8 straight up, they are 12-12 against the spread, and also 9-10 against the spread as home favorites.
Boston is playing good basketball right now, and my lean is them winning and covering the 5.5-point spread. But I am avoiding a side and backing this game total to go over the 227.5 number. The game total finished at 245 in the first matchup and 233 in the second game. Officially, the game total is 1-1 in the matchups, as the line was set at 235.5 for the second game.
Expect Miami to maintain their identity by looking to play up-tempo and get out in transition whenever it is possible. But Boston’s three-point ability can lead to an outpouring of points of their own, as they rank second in the league in three-point attempts and 10th in efficiency. The Heat also leads the NBA in first quarter points, so expect this matchup to get out to a strong start and for this to pave the way for reaching this total.
227.5 is the lowest line the game total has been set in matchups between these two teams this season, and it is worth capitalizing on. The game total has also gone over in the last seven Friday night games the Heat have played at the TD Garden. Tyler Herro’s absence is worth noting, but considering he has played just 11 games this season, it isn’t something the Heat are unfamiliar with.
Buckle up for some points from both teams and for this game total to go over the 227.5 points for the third straight matchup between these two Eastern Conference opponents.
