Tipping off at 7 p.m. ET, the Dayton Flyers will face off with the VCU Rams in a Friday night Atlantic 10 matchup.
VCU enters as a 7.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Dayton sits as a +260 underdog, with the game total set at 148.5 points.
Dayton vs. VCU prediction, preview
Dayton holds a 15-8 record and has gone 6-4 in conference play. They recently endured a four-game skid that came against La Salle, Saint Joseph’s, Rhode Island, and Saint Louis. The Flyers bounced back with a 72-70 win over St. Bonaventure on Tuesday night. This season, Dayton is 9-14 against the spread and has fallen under the game total in 14 of 23 games.
Anthony Grant’s squad is averaging 76.2 points per game, which ranks 151st in the country. They rank 148th in offensive rating, 154th in field-goal percentage, and 245th in three-point efficiency. On the other end, the Flyers have allowed the nation’s 77th-most points per game, while ranking 55th in defensive rating, 133rd in opponent field-goal percentage, and 291st in opponent three-point percentage.
Javon Bennett headlines the production with 16.1 points and 3.2 assists per game, leading the A-10 with a 90.4% clip from the free-throw line. De’Shayne Montgomery adds 15 points, 3.7 rebounds, and a team-high 2.7 steals per game — also shooting 37.1% from deep. Amael L’Etang contributes 10.9 points as the lone other player averaging double figures. Keonte Jones leads the team with 5.7 rebounds a night. Jordan Derkack, Bryce Heard, and Jaiun Simon each play notable roles in the rotation.
The Rams enter this matchup with a 17-6 record and have gone 8-2 in conference play. They enter this matchup on a six-game winning streak, taking down Rhode Island, Saint Joseph’s, Davidson, Richmond, Loyola Chicago, and Fordham. VCU has gone 10-13 against the spread this season, going over the game total in 12 of 23 games.
Phil Martelli Jr.’s squad is averaging 83.3 points per game, which ranks 35th in the country. VCU ranks 48th in offensive rating, 82nd in field goal percentage, and 41st in three-point percentage. Defensively, they’ve allowed the nation’s 131st-fewest points per game. The program ranks 84th in defensive rating, 139th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 198th in opponent perimeter efficiency.
Terrence Hill Jr. headlines the scoring with 14.5 points per game, shooting an impressive 39.9% from deep — despite frequently coming off the bench. Lazar Djokovic adds 13.5 points and 5.5 boards, while also shooting a solid 37.1% mark from downtown. Jadrian Tracey, Brandon Jennings, Nyk Lewis, Barry Evans, Michael Belle, and Ahmad Nowell round out most of their notable rotation.
Dayton vs. VCU pick, best bet
Dayton has underwhelmed a bit this season, while VCU has not quite been as solid as its record would suggest. Both teams have respectable records without playing to their peak. Neither of these teams is without flaws, but the 7.5-point spread feels far too significant for my liking based on how these teams stack up.
My biggest concern with this VCU team is how three-point dependent it is in its offensive process. The Rams attempt the 77th-most three-point attempts per game and rank 41st in efficiency. They have shot 31% or worse from deep in seven games this season and are 2-5 in these matchups.
Dayton has struggled to defend the perimeter this season, ranking 271st in threes allowed and 291st in opponent three-point percentage. However, the team has locked in as of late, holding opponents to 20.4 or fewer attempted threes at a 32.8% clip over their last ten games. While this adjustment shouldn’t change how the Flyers are viewed in the college basketball hierarchy, it should give them a fighting chance on Friday night.
Dayton also does an excellent job of creating turnovers and running in transition. They rank 12th in steals and fourth in forced turnovers. Expect the Flyers to clog up the passing lanes against a VCU squad that already struggles with ball movement.
This is a closer matchup than the spread would suggest. Count on Dayton to keep things competitive behind its improved perimeter defense, covering the 7.5-point spread. An upset, priced at +260, isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
