Everyone talks about establishing the run during the lead-up to the Super Bowl. However, with two dominant defenses taking the field, finding rushing room is easier said than done. Sunday’s Seahawks-Patriots showdown features a pair of Pro Bowl quarterbacks in Drake Maye and Sam Darnold. If either of those two are going to cement their name into NFL history, they’ll need to throw the ball.
If these two QBs are going to air it out, several pass catchers stand to benefit. Ahead of this epic Super Bowl clash, I’ll break down which players are likeliest to finish with the most receiving yards on Sunday.
The Seahawks are favored by 4.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 45.5 points.
Who Will Record the Most Receiving Yards on DraftKings Sportsbook?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-170)
To the surprise of absolutely no one, Smith-Njigba is the heavy favorite here. Seattle’s WR1 surpassed all expectations this season. Through 17 games, he’s notched 119 catches for an NFL-best 1,793 yards and ten touchdowns. No other Seattle player has recorded more than 600 receiving yards. Even more impressive, JSN leads the league with nine different 100-yard or greater performances.
Smith-Njigba isn’t what you’d call a YAC monster. His 4.4 yards after catch per reception ranks 121st in the NFL. However, the Ohio State alum’s chemistry with Darnold is undeniable. JSN ranks fifth in football with 163 targets, a number that puts him alongside some of the sport’s elite. That’s carried over into the postseason. During the NFC Championship Game vs. Los Angeles, Smith-Njigba hauled in ten receptions for 153 yards and a touchdown.
Granted, a massive performance won’t come easy on Sunday. The Patriots wield a lockdown secondary, led by Pro Bowler Christian Gonzalez. Still, JSN has done damage against every kind of defense this season. Another monster showing in the Super Bowl is the expectation at this point.
Stefon Diggs (+700)
If anyone can challenge Smith-Njigba’s receiving supremacy, it’s Stefon Diggs. Following a tumultuous exit from Buffalo, the veteran has thrived with the division rival Patriots. Over 17 appearances this season, the 32-year-old has accounted for 85 receptions, 1,013 yards and four touchdowns. The first two stats lead all New England pass catchers by a comfortable margin.
The biggest boost for Diggs’ production is that there isn’t a ton of internal competition. Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins, both good weapons, aren’t game-changers. Hunter Henry (more on him later), while a threat, has been ineffective this postseason. To make things more enticing, game script suggests New England will need to throw the ball late. Seattle leads the NFL in average scoring margin (+12.1). If this becomes a two-possession game, the Patriots will be forced to lean on Maye.
Diggs has delivered five different 100-yard games so far this season. That includes games against decent secondaries such as the Panthers and Bills. With that being said, the wideout’s sixth-highest total of the season is just 69 yards. That level of variance makes Diggs a true boom-or-bust option.
Hunter Henry (+1000)
Looking for more of a long-shot pick? Hunter Henry is likely your best option. The big-bodied tight end has been a consistent fixture in Foxborough over the last ten years. This season, he’s served as an invaluable safety blanket for Maye. Through 17 games, he’s snagged 60 catches for 768 yards and seven touchdowns.
The downside to Henry, as is the case with most tight ends, is that he’s not the go-to guy. Diggs, and to a lesser extent Boutte, will always be the first read for Maye out of the pocket. With that being said, finding space downfield could prove difficult. Seattle is giving up 5.7 yards per pass attempt, second-fewest in football. As a result, short-to-intermediate completions might be the priority for New England.
The Seahawks have given up 1,080 yards to opposing tight ends this season, sixth-most in football. For those that think this matchup will go under 45.5, Henry makes some sense. However, he’s unlikely to lead the way if this one turns into a shootout.
Verdict: Smith-Njigba (-170)
In most scenarios, I’d aim for the value play over the favorite. However, it’s difficult to buy into a challenger in this one. JSN is a dominant force, and I expect Seattle to make every effort to feed its top weapon. On the flip side, New England’s passing game is usually more spread out. Diggs and Henry will have their moments, but that could mean eating into the other’s production. Smith-Njigba is the only contender here that I’d have confidence backing.
