After taking an eight-game road trip while the Grammy Awards took over Crypto.com Arena, the Los Angeles Lakers are finally back at home for an eight-game stand. The last time the Lakers played at home, the NBA landscape was somewhat different, as a fairly active trade deadline has slightly shifted the competitive balance of the league. It’s possible that, by 3 p.m. ET, Los Angeles’ roster won’t even look the same.
Regardless, the Lakers will begin a pivotal stretch of 15 home games in 18 with a 10 p.m. ET matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers. The only major player on Los Angeles’ injury report is backup center Jaxson Hayes, who was suspended for pushing the Washington Wizards’ mascot on January 30, and newly-acquired Luke Kennard is out after arriving in a trade earlier this morning. The 76ers’ most significant question (as always) is Joel Embiid, who’s questionable as he manages his knee injury. Paul George is out as part of his 25-game drug suspension.
The Lakers are 3.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-175 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 234.5. Philadelphia is +145 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this inter-conference matchup and offer a prediction.
Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers preview, prediction
All things considered, the Grammy Trip didn’t treat Los Angeles poorly. The Lakers went 5-3 on the road, launching an impressive comeback win over the Denver Nuggets during the trip’s opening game, though they lost to the two Eastern Conference contenders they faced (the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks). Luka Dončić found his shot during the road trip, connecting on nearly 40% of his three-pointers, and Austin Reaves returned from his calf strain with a solid 15 points in 20 minutes off the bench on Tuesday. The goal for Los Angeles will now be to stay healthy for the rest of the season and see if it can make an addition in the buyout market (expectedly, rumors have linked the Lakers with their former second overall pick Lonzo Ball).
Meanwhile, the 76ers will enter tonight’s matchup as one of the hottest teams in basketball, though it’s worth noting that four of the teams they’ve beaten in that stretch — the Milwaukee Bucks, Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans, and Stephen Curry-less Golden State Warriors — hardly have playoff-caliber rosters. Their offense has been hot in general, as they’ve scored 120 or more points in three of their five wins, and both Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid have played at All-Star levels. With just three and a half games between them and the second-seeded New York Knicks, Philadelphia mostly stood pat at the deadline, trading second-year guard Jared McCain to the Oklahoma City Thunder for a late first-round pick.
76ers at Lakers pick, best bet
Reaves will presumably continue to be on a heavy minutes restriction tonight, but his presence should make life easier for just about every other player on Los Angeles’ roster. Of the eight players with whom Reaves has shared the court for at least 200 minutes this season, only two (Hayes and LeBron James) have negative net ratings playing alongside him, and lineups with Reaves alongside Marcus Smart and either Dončić or Rui Hachimura have been especially encouraging, out-scoring opponents by 24.4 and 22.6 points per 100 possessions, respectively. Smart will probably have to play more tonight with Gabe Vincent off the roster and Kennard not available yet, which could bode well for tonight.
What doesn’t bode so well for the Lakers tonight is the fact that the 76ers have gotten to the rim at the league’s third-highest rate but have been the league’s worst finishing team once they get there, with both Maxey and rookie VJ Edgecombe converting at lower than a 64% rate in the restricted area. That’s an issue for Los Angeles because it is the third-worst rim-protecting team in basketball, allowing a putrid 71.9% conversion rate in the restricted area, and as bad as Hayes has been, Maxi Kleber and Drew Timme, who are likely to take over Hayes’ minutes at center, are even worse. Philadelphia could struggle to stop the Lakers from getting downhill, though; it has allowed the third-most restricted-area tries this season, and Los Angeles has been the league’s best finishing team. The Lakers aren’t good at driving, but getting Reaves back should help.
Los Angeles should have somewhat of an edge on the glass, as it has ranks 12th in rebounding percentage and the 76ers 21st, though because it has finished so well, it actually ranks below Philadelphia in second-chance points per game. The younger and more athletic 76ers should have a small advantage over the Lakers in transition, as they rank in the top 10 in both points off of turnovers and fast-break points while Los Angeles ranks in the middle third. They also turn the ball over somewhat less. The Lakers should enjoy their typical free-throw differential advantage, given that Philadelphia has been more foul-prone than average.
Los Angeles has been the worse-shooting team, but should be more poised to benefit from luck normalization. The 76ers have allowed slightly more wide-open threes than the Lakers have this season and have benefited from opponents making a lower percentage of them, and losing George, who is still able to contest threes at a high rate thanks to his length, should hurt. Neither team has done a good job generating uncontested looks, but Los Angeles has hit its shots at a lower rate despite having two qualified players (Hachimura and Dončić) ahead of Philadelphia’s best shooter (Maxey) by expected three-point percentage differential. Embiid is a tremendous player still, but he has not shot the ball well this season, and Edgecombe is inconsistent.
With each team capable of mitigating the other’s obvious weakness in the paint — the Lakers by virtue of the 76ers’ lackluster perimeter defense and Philadelphia by virtue of Los Angeles’ awful rim protection — this game should be close, and it should swing on either team’s shooting. I’d expect Los Angeles to ultimately prevail — it has still been the best clutch team in the league, with a 14-2 record and a plus-29.8 net rating once games get within five points in the last five minutes — but I wouldn’t be surprised if the 76ers pulled it out.
