Last week, I wrote up a macro primer for Super Bowl LX, so go check that out HERE. This piece will be more lineup focused.
DraftKings Sportsbook has SEA -4.5 over NE with the total at 45.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $4.5M Super Bowl LX Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Super Bowl LX)
Captain’s Picks
Sam Darnold ($16,200 CP): I’m not expecting many points in this one and both defenses are excellent against the run, so if points are going to be scored, then it will likely be through the air. If the game becomes a shootout, then obviously Darnold would be a big part of that as well. I have the utmost respect for the Seahawks defense. The unit can get pressure without blitzing and is excellent against the pass. The same can’t be said for New England. Sure, the EPA per dropback is second-lowest but the pressure rate is ninth-lowest. I think Darnold will have time to make some plays.
UTIL Plays
Hunter Henry ($7,000): Seattle allowed the fifth-lowest FPTS on average against wide receivers and fourth-lowest against running backs. Against tight ends? 11th-most. Henry was second on the Patriots with 87 targets and received 23 red zone opportunities.
AJ Barner ($4,800): The double-TE lineup. Will it hit? Probably not. Could it? Absolutely and the lineup could be a unique one. New England was also good against wide receivers and running backs, allowing the 13th-fewest FPTS against wide receivers and the fifth-fewest against running backs. Against tight ends? The 13th-most. Barner was third on the Seahawks with 68 targets and received 18 red zone looks.
Seahawks DST ($4,400): The unit posted the sixth-highest pressure rate despite blitzing at the seventh-lowest rate. The 47 sacks were tied for the seventh-most during the regular season. The 25 takeaways were sixth-most. Drake Maye took 62 sacks, with five each in all three playoff games. Seattle put up double-digit FPTS 10 times this season with three over 20 FPTS and a high of 30 FPTS.
Fades
Kenneth Walker III ($9,800): It’s tough fading a bellcow running back, but here we are. New England is elite at run defense, so the sledding will be tough. Walker will make some plays in the passing game, but I think the Patriots do a good job of limiting the big play. New England was one of the best tackling teams, ranking near the top in missed tackle percentage. In the red zone, the eight rushing touchdowns were the second-fewest. I think the ownership will be very high for Walker, so if say, Hunter Henry scores a touchdown or touchdowns, then yahtzee!
THE OUTCOME
The 45.5 total gives me a little pause, but I think this game is a defensive battle with few points. Anything can happen in one game and, if it is a low-scoring game, then one play can make the difference. That said, I do think the Seahawks are the better team.
Final Score: Seahawks 23, Patriots 17
