The Seton Hall Pirates will face the Villanova Wildcats in a Big East battle set to tip off at 6:30 p.m. ET.
These programs have faced off on the basketball court 49 times in their history. Villanova has come out victorious in 37 of these matchups, including four straight matchups entering tonight’s game. This includes the matchup between these two sides on December 23rd, which resulted in a 64-56 Villanova win.
Looking at the odds, Villanova enters as a 7.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 134.5 points. Seton Hall holds +270 odds of pulling off the outright upset.
Seton Hall at Villanova prediction, preview
Seton Hall enters with a 16-6 record and has gone 6-5 in Big East play. The Pirates are coming off back-to-back wins over Xavier and Marquette, but dropped four games consecutively before this against DePaul, St. John’s, Butler, and UConn. On the season, Seton Hall has gone 13-9 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 13 of their 21 games played.
Shaheen Holloway’s squad is scoring 72.1 points per game, which ranks 282nd out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. They rank 223rd in offensive rating, 290th in field goal percentage, 314th in three-point percentage, and shoot the third-fewest three-point attempts per game in the country. Defensively, Seton Hall has had more success. The Pirates are holding opponents to the 11th-fewest points per game at 64.2 per contest. The Pirates rank 20th in defensive rating, 26th in opponents’ field goal percentage allowed, 94th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and rank 10th in blocks per game.
A.J. Stanton-McCray headlines the production for Seton Hall, posting averages of 11.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game. Adam Clark adds 11.3 points per game and a team-leading 4.6 assists per contest. TJ Simpkins is the lone other player averaging in double figures with 11.1 points per game and shooting a team-best 41.7% on three-point attempts. Mike Williams III, Elijah Fisher, Stephon Payne III, and Najai Hines each also play notable roles in the rotation.
The Villanova Wildcats have played themselves back into the upper echelon of college basketball conversation. Villanova holds a 16-5 record on the season, and has gone 7-3 in Big East play. They defeated Providence in their previous game, but have lost to UConn, St. John’s, and Creighton since the New Year started. Overall, the Wildcats have gone 14-7 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 12 of their 21 games played.
Kevin Willard’s squad is averaging 77.9 points per game, which ranks 148th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. Villanova ranks 52nd in offensive rating, 130th in field goal percentage, 44th in three-point percentage, and 66th in three-point volume. Defensively, opponents are scoring 69.1 points per game against the Wildcats, which ranks 68th in the country. Villanova also ranks 153rd in defensive rating, 203rd in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 260th in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed.
Bryce Lindsey leads the team in scoring at 14.0 points per game, along with 2.4 rebounds and a Big East-leading 38.4% three-point percentage. Tyler Perkins adds 12.8 points and 5.2 rebounds, while Duke Brennan pitches in 12.1 points and a team-leading 10.6 rebounds per game. Academe Lewis has impressed as the season has progressed, with averages of 11.9 points and a team-leading 5.3 rebounds, while Devin Askew and Matt Hodge also average in double figures.
Seton Hall vs. Villanova pick, best bet
Seton Hall is a hard-nosed, defensive-minded team that plays hard every night. However, they also have some significant offensive concerns that I expect to show face in this matchup.
The biggest discrepancy that Seton Hall should view as a concern is the battle at the three-point line. Villanova ranks 66th in the country in three-point volume by attempting 27.0 perimeter shots per game and 44th in three-point percentage at 36.7% as a team. They do a nice job driving and kicking to shooters, with this being a huge part of their offensive attack. Seton Hall does a respectable job guarding the perimeter, ranking 92nd in three-point attempts allowed and 94th in opponents’ three-point percentage. However, they attempt the third-fewest three-point attempts at 15.9 per game, and rank 314th in three-point percentage at 31.4% as a team.
Trading two points for three points is a losing battle from Seton Hall’s perspective. For the Pirates to have a chance in this game, they must keep this a low-scoring, defensive-minded game.
Villanova was still able to produce a win, by more than the 7.5-point margin, with this resulting in a 64-56 win. The Wildcats scored 21 additional points from beyond the three-point line and had more success forcing turnovers than Seton Hall did. Villanova was able to push the lead to as many as 20 and led for 90% of the game, but a late push by Seton Hall made this the score closer than the game felt.
The second matchup between these two teams now travels to Villanova. The Wildcats have won 12 of their last 13 games against Seton Hall and 25 of their last 33 against Big East opponents. Expect Villanova to produce a level of offensive success that Seton Hall is incapable of matching and pave the way for a win. Back the Wildcats to cover the 7.5-point spread for the second time against this Seton Hall team with the home crowd behind them.
