The NBA landscape was shaken last night by a blockbuster-level trade between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Clippers. In a deal that progressed extremely quickly, James Harden found his way to the Cavs in exchange for Darius Garland and a second-round pick. It’s unknown whether either of the All-Star guards will suit up for tonight’s game, but there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding this matchup regardless.
Here’s a Cavaliers vs. Clippers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday night’s game.
Cavaliers vs. Clippers prediction, preview
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers haven’t matched last season’s two-way dominance, and a 30-21 record sitting fifth in the Eastern Conference does admittedly feel like they’ve fallen short. It appears that sentiment echoed through the front office with the decision to swap an oft-injured Garland for another All-Star point guard in Harden, though it does raise the question of whether that was the right move given the decade-wide age gap between the two.
Still, Cleveland does sit ninth in NETRTG at +3.1 while ranking seventh in pace. The Cavs are quite capable on offense with 119.3 PPG (fifth-most) and the ninth-best OFFRTG, even while operating without Garland for much of the campaign. They shoot 47.3% from the field (eighth-best) and 35.8% from three (16th), though they rank fourth in 3PA and fifth in 3PM per game. They also average 28.6 assists (eighth) with the ninth-best AST/TO ratio. Harden will certainly help as a playmaker once active, but there are questions about whether he helps alleviate the team’s larger issues. While the Cavs pull down 44.7 rebounds per outing (13th), they give up 116.2 PPG to opponents (19th) and fall 13th in DEFRTG. It’s tough to deny they’ve fallen off some on that end of the floor compared to last year’s dominant group.
It seems quite unlikely Harden makes his debut tonight given that he’s still listed as a member of the Clippers on the NBA’s official injury report (as of 12:30 p.m. EST), so one should expect he doesn’t play. Star big man Evan Mobley (calf) also remains sidelined with Max Strus (hip).
In the meantime, Donovan Mitchell will continue to lead this unit amidst a career-best season of 28.8 points and 5.8 assists per game, also leading the roster with 1.5 steals. One name to watch is Jaylon Tyson, a second-year wing averaging 14.0 PPG while shooting an astounding 47.3% from three-point range. Of course, Jarrett Allen serves as the primary center with 14.0 points and 8.0 rebounds, and Sam Merrill has also excelled as a shooter with 13.6 PPG and a 45.6% 3P%. Additionally, Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis were recently acquired by Cleveland via trade and could debut tonight as well, with the former averaging 12.8 points and 5.3 assists on the year.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are just 23-26 on the season but had recently joined the NBA Play-In Tournament mix after a 17-5 stretch since December 20. That surge over the winter period makes trading Harden a little bit more baffling even given the star’s penchant for moving around, especially given the dominance of Kawhi Leonard this season.
Los Angeles sits 17th in NETRTG at -0.2 and 29th in pace around the league. At a surface level, the defense stands out with 112.9 PPG allowed (ninth), but that mark may instead be a matter of pace since the Clips are 20th in DEFRTG. They’re also 28th in rebounding with just 40.8 boards per game, but again, the pace plays a part here. Offensively, the Clippers average 112.7 PPG (25th) but fall 12th in OFFRTG. They shoot 47.8% from the field (seventh) and 36.6% from three (11th), though they attempt the fewest shots of any team. That also leaves them last in assists per game with 23.6, though they’re 29th in AST/TO ratio, too.
Losing Harden — the team’s second-leading scorer with 27.6 PPG and leading passer with 8.1 assists — certainly hurts the outlook as long as Garland (toe) remains out. However, the remainder of the injury report is largely clean.
Kawhi Leonard earned a selection to the All-Star team as a replacement in the midst of an amazing campaign. The star forward looks like his vintage self, averaging 27.6 points on a 49.7%/39.1%/91.3% shooting split along with 6.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2.1 steals. He’s doing much of the work for this team himself as an MVP-caliber talent, but the frontcourt also plays a significant role. Ivica Zubac posts 14.4 points and 11.0 rebounds per game as one of the league’s underrated centers, and John Collins averages 13.5 PPG while shooting 42.9% from three. Beyond them, Derrick Jones Jr. recently returned to the lineup and posts 10.4 PPG across 17 appearances this year.
Cavaliers vs. Clippers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cavaliers as 2.5-point road favorites tonight with -142 odds on the Moneyline. The Clippers are +120 ML underdogs with the game total set at 222.5 points. Betting splits show 73% of straight wagers on Cleveland to win with 79% picking the over on the total.
Projecting how this matchup plays out without Harden for the Clippers is a little bit tricky given the role he played for them. They’re 2-3 without him overall this season, splitting the last two games he missed over the last few days at 1-1. In the first of those, L.A. held the Suns to just 93 points and didn’t need a ton of scoring to win; in the latter, the Clips scored 113 but couldn’t keep pace with a strong Sixers offense. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 5-4 without Mobley on the campaign and are 2-1 over this most recent stretch without the young star.
If one thing is clear though, it’s that Cleveland has more talent in the rotation than its opponent does tonight. Mitchell and Leonard will surely duel and neither has a second star to support them here, but the role players for the Cavs can likely offer more support behind their leader. Tyson has put forth steady efforts, Allen battles in the paint and Merrill is a sniper from deep as well. The addition of Schroder (if he debuts) makes a big difference for what’s been a pretty depleted guard rotation, too. That’s not to say the Clippers are without their own talent, but Cleveland is simply better on the boards and has more options beyond Mitchell who can step up here.
I like the Cavaliers to cover tonight and win by at least three on the road.
Top pick: CLE Cavaliers -2.5 (-112)
