Headlining today’s college basketball slate, a pair of ranked teams will be squaring off, as the Illinois Fighting Illini face the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Both these teams have gotten off to strong starts to the season. This Big Ten conference battle features a pair of teams that have combined for just four losses on the season, and this matchup will be a key measuring stick match for both sides. These teams faced off once already this season, which resulted in an 83-80 Nebraska victory back on December 13th. Pryce Sandfort exploded for 32 points en route to this victory, and the Cornhuskers held a lead for 92% of this matchup.
Looking at the odds for tonight, Nebraska is a narrow 1.5-point home favorite and holds -120 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Illinois holds +100 odds of getting the outright win, with the game total set at O/U 151.5 points.
Illinois at Nebraska prediction, preview
Illinois hold an 18-3 record on the season, and is 9-1 in Big Ten conference play. The team enters this matchup on a 10-game winning streak, with their last loss coming against this same Nebraska team. The Fighting Illini also suffered losses against Alabama and UConn this season, while they have ranked wins over Purdue, Iowa, and Texas Tech. On the season, Illinois has gone 13-8 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 13 of 21 games.
Brad Underwood’s squad ranks 36th in the country in scoring, averaging 85 points per game. They rank third in offensive rating, 89th in field-goal percentage, and 76th in three-point percentage. Defensively, they are holding opponents to 68.2 points per game, the 53rd-best mark in the country. Illinois ranks 91st in defensive rating, 37th in opponents’ field-goal percentage, and 81st in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Keaton Wagler leads the team with 17.7 points per game, along with 5.0 rebounds and 4.2 assists, on 43.7% efficiency from downtown. Kylan Boswell adds 14.7 points per game, but is sidelined with a broken hand. Andrej Stojakovic is averaging 13.6 points and 4.7 rebounds. David Mirkovic and Tomislav Ivisic each also average in double figures, with Mirkovic leading the team with 8.2 rebounds per game. Zvonimir Ivisic and Ben Humrichous also play notable roles in the rotation.
The Cornhuskers hold a 20-1 record and have climbed to fifth in the AP Poll. Their lone loss came against Michigan in a 75-72 heavyweight battle in the previous game. Nebraska got off to a 20-0 start to the season before this, which includes ranked wins over Illinois and Michigan State. Nebraska is 13-7-1 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 15 of 21 games.
Fred Hoiberg’s squad is averaging 80.5 points per game, which ranks 95th among D1 squads. The Cornhuskers rank 56th in offensive rating, 68th in field goal percentage, 101st in three-point percentage, and attempt the 16th-most perimeter attempts in college basketball. Defensively, opponents are scoring the 21st-fewest points per game against Nebraska, at 65.4 points per game. The club also ranks 20th in defensive rating, 18th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 38th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Pryce Sandfort headlines the scoring with 17.4 points and 4.6 rebounds, while shooting 40.8% from deep. Rienk Mast adds 14.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, while Braden Frager and Jamarques Lawrence also average in double figures. Berke Buyuktuncel adds 7.4 points and a team-high 6.1 rebounds, while Sam Hoiberg, Ugnius Jarusevicius, and Connor Essegian play key roles in the rotation.
Illinois at Nebraska pick, best bet
Nebraska got the better of this matchup in the first game between these two teams while playing at Illinois. This matchup will return to Nebraska, where the Cornhuskers are 5-6-1 against the spread this season. Illinois has performed well on the road this season, going 4-1 against the spread. My lean would be toward Illinois evening up the season series and putting forth a better effort than was the case in the first matchup. But, I am staying away from a side and backing the game total to go over the 151.5 point margin.
The Fighting Illini have been red-hot since their loss to the Cornhuskers, winning 10 straight, in which they have scored 73+ points in each and tallied 88 or more points in four of these. They rank first in KenPom’s offensive efficiency and average 85.0 points per game.
Nebraska is plenty capable of putting up points itself, averaging 80.5 points per game and ranking 56th in offensive efficiency. The team will be hungry to bounce back from their first loss of the season, in which they were without both Mast and Frager. Both are expected to return to the floor today. The Cornhuskers attempt 30.7 three-point attempts per game, which is the 16th-most in college basketball. This will be a problem against an Illinois defense that ranks 278th in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed.
The first matchup between these two teams finished with a game total of 163, and each of the past four meetings has finished with a combined total of at least 154 points.
