Rounding out a loaded day of college basketball, the Saint Mary’s Gaels will face off with the No. 6-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs in a West Coast Conference battle in Spokane, Washington.
This will be the 121st all-time meeting between these two programs. Gonzaga holds an 83-37 record and has won 27 of the last 36 matchups. Both sides are off to strong starts this season, and this contest should be an interesting measuring stick for each squad.
Gonzaga enters as an 8.5-point favorite with -425 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Saint Mary’s sits as a +360 underdog, and the game total is set at 145.5 points.
Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga prediction, preview
The Gaels hold a 19-3 record and have gone 8-1 in West Coast Conference play. Their three losses have come against Vanderbilt, Boise State, and Santa Clara. Saint Mary’s ranks 29th in college basketball with an average point differential of 14. The program is 11-10 against the spread and has covered the over in 11 of 21 games.
Paulius Murauskas headlines the production with a WCC-leading 19.3 points per game, along with 7.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists. Joshua Dent adds 13.3 points and 5.4 assists, while leading the conference with 35.8 minutes per game. Mikey Lewis also contributes double-digit points. Andrew McKeever pulls down a WCC-high 9.4 rebounds per game, and Dillan Shaw shoots a team-best 43% from the perimeter.
Saint Mary’s scores 77.8 points per game, which ranks outside the nation’s top 100. It ranks 48th in offensive rating, 90th in field-goal percentage, 38th in three-point percentage, and 30th in rebounds. On the other end, the Gaels are holding opponents to the 15th-fewest points at 65.6 per game. They rank 40th in defensive rating, 38th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 34th in opponent perimeter efficiency.
The Bulldogs sit in sixth place in the AP Poll with a 21-1 record this season. Their lone loss came against Michigan in a 101-61 rout back on Nov. 26th. Gonzaga has since won 14 straight and now leads the country with a 22.3-point average victory margin. The program is 12-10 against the spread and has fallen under the game total in 14 of its 22 games.
Graham Ike leads the team with 18.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. Braden Huff is not far behind, adding 17.8 points and 5.6 boards a night. Huff is sidelined, while Ike is expected to return after nursing a sprained ankle for the last two weeks. Grand Canyon transfer Tyon Grant-Foster has also started to settle in, contributing 11.5 points and 4.8 rebounds of his own. Mario Saint-Supery and Davis Fogle each shoot 45% or better from beyond the arc. Jalen Warley, Adam Miller, and Braeden Smith also play key roles in the rotation.
Gonzaga is scoring 88.9 points per game, which ranks 12th among D1 teams. The Bulldogs rank 18th in offensive rating, third in field-goal percentage, 10th in assists, and fifth in rebounds. Defensively, they’ve allowed the 22nd-fewest points per game at 66.5. Gonzaga has produced the country’s 11th-best defensive rating, while ranking seventh in opponent field-goal percentage, 29th in opponent perimeter efficiency, and 16th in turnovers forced.
Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga pick, best bet
These are the two top teams in the West Coast Conference, and Saint Mary’s is the only team with a real chance at challenging Gonzaga.
Not having the 17.8 points per game from Braden Huff is a big deal, and Graham Ike will be shaking off some rust after missing the past three games with an injury. While the Bulldogs are on a 14-game winning streak and playing at home, they are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six home games and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games, overall. Gonzaga also went down to the wire with San Francisco in its previous game, escaping with a 68-66 win.
In contrast, Saint Mary’s has covered the spread in five of its last eight contests. The team is also 4-2 against the spread in their last six meetings with Gonzaga, including a pair of upset wins. The Gaels play smart basketball, defend at a high rate, and shoot free throws at the best percentage in the country (81%). This is a well-coached team that will not allow mistakes to bury them.
There are more question marks surrounding this Gonzaga team than its record and AP rank indicate. Expect this conference battle to come with plenty of intensity and go down to the wire. The 8.5-point spread is lofty for my liking, based on how these teams are playing. Buckle up for a close matchup and back the Gaels to cover.
