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Prediction, pick for Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliott at UFC 325

Prediction, pick for Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliott at UFC 325

Published:

By: Ryan Wohl

Two Welterweight prospects, Jonathan Micallef and Oban Elliott, face off in the opening bout of the Prelims at UFC 325. Micallef beat Kevin Jousset by unanimous decision in his first UFC contest at UFC 312 in February 2025. Elliott’s previous eight-fight winning streak came to an end in his last fight against Seokhyeon Ko in June 2025. Micallef is 8-1 and fighting in his home country, Australia. The Prelims for UFC 325 begin at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Here is my best bet for Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliott on the Prelims at UFC 325.

Oban Elliott Moneyline (+105)

Elliott, “The Welsh Gangster,” started his UFC career 3-0 and made a big impact with his electric personality and charisma. In his last fight, Elliott only landed 10 significant strikes while Ko finished with 10:15 of control time and six takedowns. From the start of that contest, Elliott didn’t look like his usual self, as he wasn’t as agile on his feet.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Micallef is a -125 favorite with Elliott being a +105 underdog in this contest. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds with the over being -215.

Micallef has won three consecutive fights, with his last victory coming against Kevin Jousset at UFC 312 in February 2025. Both fighters are 6’0″, while Micallef has a five-inch reach advantage. Although Micallef averages more significant strikes per minute (4.77 vs. 3.50), Elliott is the more efficient striker (48% vs. 43%) and better defensively. Elliott only absorbs 2.24 significant strikes per minute, which is 1.76 fewer than Micallef. Also on the ground, Elliott is the better fighter on the ground, which will be a key factor in this contest. If Elliott can be aggressive on the feet while mixing in takedowns throughout this bout, he should be able to find success.

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