Tipping off at 6:00 p.m. ET across a busy day of college basketball, the Ole Miss Rebels will face off with the 18th-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores.
Both of these SEC opponents have shown some impressive flashes so far this season. These two programs have faced off 37 times on the basketball court in history, with Vanderbilt having won 20 of these matchups. This includes three of the past four games between them.
Looking at the odds for tonight, Vanderbilt enters as a 10.5-point favorite and holds -625 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Ole Miss holds +455 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 149.5.
Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt prediction, preview
The Ole Miss Rebels enter this matchup with an 11-9 record on the season and have gone 3-4 in SEC play. They are looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses at the hands of Auburn and Kentucky. On the season, the Rebels are 7-13 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 11 of the 20 games played.
Chris Beard’s squad is producing 74.8 points per game, which ranks 222nd in the country. They rank 181st in offensive rating, 260th in field goal percentage, 176th in three-point percentage, and 32nd in turnovers per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 71.2 points per game against Ole Miss. The Rebels rank 167th in defensive rating, 79th in opponent field goal percentage, and 161st in opponent three-point percentage.
AJ Storr headlines the production for Ole Miss, posting averages of 13.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. Malik Dia is not far behind with 13.7 points and a team-high 6.7 rebounds per game. Ilias Kamardine is the lone other player to average in double figures with 10.9 points, 4.1 assists and 3.3 rebounds per game. Patton Pinkins shoots a team-best 48.4% on three-point attempts while adding 8.7 points per game. The rest of the Rebels’ notable rotation is rounded out by Kezza Giffa, Travis Perry, and James Scott.
The Vanderbilt Commodores are 18-3 on the season, with all three losses coming in conference play. They have come up short against Texas, Florida, and Arkansas after starting the season on a 16-game winning streak, but won back-to-back games against Kentucky and Mississippi State in their two previous games. While the 98-94 loss to Florida was respectable, Texas and Arkansas beat this Vanderbilt team by 24 and 25 points. Overall, the Commodores are 12-9 against the spread this season, and the game total has gone over in 10 of their 21 matchups.
Vanderbilt has a high-powered offensive attack that generates 89.6 points per game. This ranks 11th among all Division I teams. They also rank 16th in offensive rating, 33rd in field goal percentage, 56th in three-point percentage, and 16th in turnovers per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 73.1 points per game against the Commodores, which ranks 169th in the country. They rank 54th in defensive rating, 53rd in opponent field goal percentage, and 10th in opponent three-point percentage.
Tyler Tanner leads the team with 17.5 points, 5.2 assists, and 3.6 rebounds per game. Duke Miles adds 16.6 points and 4.3 assists while leading the SEC with 2.8 steals per game. Tyler Nickel averages 14.9 points and 3.3 rebounds, shooting an SEC-best 45.8% on three-point attempts. Devin McGlockton adds 10.2 points and 7.0 rebounds, while Jalen Washington and AK Okereke play significant roles.
Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt pick, best bet
The tempo at which this game is played will have a huge role in what the outcome is. Vanderbilt wants to push the pace, get out in transition and play at an up-tempo style. Ole Miss does not have the offensive firepower to run with their opponent and will do its best to slow things down and make this a halfcourt battle.
There seemed to be some overreactions when Vanderbilt lost three straight games against some top opponents. While the pair of blowouts brought some concerns, the Commodores were never going to go undefeated and still have a rightful place in the upper echelon of college basketball. This is a get-right spot for them, and I expect them to win the tempo battle and put forth an impressive scoring total tonight.
Mississippi may keep things close in the early portions of this game, but expect Vanderbilt to pull away as the game goes on. Vanderbilt has won eight of its last nine games against non-ranked opponents, while Ole Miss has dropped 11 of its last 13 road games against AP-ranked opponents. Vanderbilt cruised past Kentucky with a 25-point victory in the previous game, despite shooting just 40% from the field.
Look for the Commodores to have even more offensive success in this matchup and for the Rebels to fail to match this. Vanderbilt has scored 80+ points in 18 of their 21 games, and 90+ in 10 games. Expect the group to push their scoring total to 80+ and for Ole Miss to fail to reach this mark. Vanderbilt ranks ninth in the country with an average margin of victory of +16.5. The Commodores do an excellent job keeping their foot on the gas and pushing their lead to a level that is insurmountable. Watch for things to play out this way and for Vanderbilt to cover the 10.5-point spread tonight.
