#16 North Carolina (16-4, 4-3), one of college basketball’s premier programs, has its eyes set on another national title. The Tar Heels certainly aren’t lacking in talent, wielding a roster loaded with five-star recruits. Still, this is the ACC; wins don’t always come easy. Georgia Tech (11-10, 2-6) has had a much rougher go of things so far. Playing at home, can the Yellow Jackets pull off an upset over their conference foes?
North Carolina enters as 10.5-point favorites (-108) over Georgia Tech. The total is set at 158.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Saturday’s game between the Tar Heels and the Yellow Jackets.
North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech prediction, preview
North Carolina is a good team, but breaking into title-contender status has been difficult. In fact, the advanced metrics suggest that this group has over-performed. UNC is just 29th in adjusted efficiency margin on KenPom, held down primarily by its defense. The Tar Heels have a 100.7 defensive rating this season, 71st in all of college basketball.
Unlike in years past, this Tar Heels team blends high-end talent with experience. In the frontcourt, freshman Caleb Wilson is a projected lottery pick during this summer’s NBA Draft. The lanky 6’9″ power forward elicits pro comparisons to Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes. Through 20 games this season, he’s averaging 19.9 points, 10.1 rebounds and 2.8 assists while shooting 59% from the field.
Elsewhere, upperclassmen Henri Veesaar (16.6 PPG, 8.8 REB) and Seth Trimble (14.2 PPG, 4.1 REB) make up a large part of UNC’s production. As a unit, this offense comfortably middle of the pack in most categories compared to their ACC counterparts. However, their 123.1 adjusted offensive efficiency margin on KenPom is good enough for 20th in the nation. One area where the Heels truly excel is ball control. Their 9.9 turnovers per game are the third-fewest in the conference. This isn’t a group that’s prone to beating itself.
A deep, well-rounded roster poses a significant challenge to most squads. That’s especially true for a Georgia Tech program that has struggled to generate any kind of consistency. Unlike UNC, the Yellow Jackets have struggled to put up points. Their 103.3 offensive rating is 305th out of 365 Division I schools. Leading the charge is guard Kowacie Reeves Jr., posting 15.9 points per game on 45% shooting. Just two other GT players are averaging double-digits this season. Part of the reason for this team’s struggles is an ACC-worst 13.6 turnovers per game.
If nothing else, this is an above-average unit on the other end of the floor. Tech’s 101.5 defensive rating is firmly middle of the pack compared to other ACC schools. The Yellow Jackets are blocking 4.3 shots per game, good enough for fourth in the conference. However, their interior defense could be more vulnerable on Saturday. Starting center Mouhamed Sylla is currently injured, leaving Georgia Tech weaker than usual down low. That could spell trouble against Wilson and a tall, physical North Carolina frontcourt.
North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech pick, best bet
North Carolina’s status as a true contender for a national championship remains questionable. Still, Hubert Davis has assembled a dangerous, versatile team in Chapel Hill. To boot, the Tar Heels are riding high following a road win over #17 Virginia. They’ll look to keep that momentum going today in Atlanta. At full strength, I could see Georgia Tech making this one ugly. However, without Sylla, the Yellow Jackets might be doomed on the glass. A comfortable win for the visitors could be on tap this afternoon.
