Saturday’s NBA slate concludes a little earlier than usual as the Dallas Mavericks head south to take on the Houston Rockets. This is a rivalry matchup with something to prove for both sides as the Mavs come off a close loss in which star rookie Cooper Flagg dropped an incredible 49 points, while the Rockets suffered a loss of their own to the Spurs and are looking to get back in the win column.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston is a -10.5 favorite at home with -470 odds to win on the Moneyline. The game total is set at 222.5 combined points.
Here are the top Mavericks vs. Rockets prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for this matchup.
Best Mavericks vs. Rockets player prop bets
Daniel Gafford under 5.5 rebounds (-115)
Taking a starting center to stay under 5.5 boards would typically feel like a very bold play. However, the odds on Daniel Gaffords boards are essentially split at -114/-115 on either side, and there’s certainly a reason or two the line sits this low to begin with. I personally really like the big man’s game, but the biggest issue by far is his health. He’s been in and out of the lineup all season long and has seen just 25, 21 and 16 minutes in his three most recent games back from an injury. With his time on the court seemingly restricted due to health reasons (averaging just 20.8 MPG on the campaign), it’s tougher for Gafford to make a big impact in the box score. He posts 6.2 boards per game this season, and while he can certainly go over tonight’s line, it’s probably prudent to fade him.
The opposing Rockets are the NBA’s best team on the glass, hands down. Houston brings in 49.2 rebounds per game and holds a REB% of 55.3%, both league-leading marks. While backup center Steven Adams is out for the remainder of the season, this team should continue to dominate the offensive glass in particular as it paces the Association with 16.2 OREB per game and a 40.6% OREB% that’s 5.1 percentage points higher than the next-closest franchise. Usually I’d endorse going over on 5.5 boards for Gafford, but not tonight due to the minutes risk and matchup with Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson.
Amen Thompson over 1.5 steals (+144)
The star of a strong Rockets defense, Amen Thompson brings an electric element to the floor as a true lightning rod. One of the most athletic players in a league full of elite physical talents, the third-year pro remains a top-10 defender in the entire NBA (and that’s probably a conservative ranking). At 6-foot-7 with a seven-foot wingspan and quick-twitch acceleration, Thompson wreaks havoc on opposing offenses as a lockdown on-ball defender who can also make plays off the ball by disrupting passing lanes and chasing down blocks. He averages 1.4 steals per outing this season but has gotten hot as of late on that end, recording two or more steals in four of his last five games. Over that span, he’s recorded a total of 11 steals for an average of over two per contest, so it’s possible he remains locked in tonight.
Thompson gets a positive matchup against the Mavericks in that regard. Dallas averages 15.1 turnovers per game, 21st in the league overall. With younger talents typically running the offense as veterans like P.J. Washington, Klay Thompson and Gafford play more off-ball roles, this is a mistake-prone team opponents can get the better of. The Mavs allow 9.1 steals per game to opponents, fifth-most in the NBA as well. That works out nicely for Amen to get over 1.5 steals at plus odds.
