Barcelona made a major step in its quest for its first continental treble since the 2014-15 season on Wednesday, picking up a 4-1 win over Copenhagen in the Champions League to advance to directly to the Round of 16. The Blaugrana now can focus on La Liga and Copa Del Rey play for the next month before the Round of 16 in March.
Through 21 matches, Barcelona holds a one-point lead over Real Madrid. It can extend that lead to four at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local), when it will travel to face Elche at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
The Blaugrana are -285 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Los Franjiverdes are +600. A draw carries +475 odds.
Elche vs. Barcelona prediction, pick
Barcelona has 14 wins and one defeat across its last 15 matches in all competitions, but that defeat was a critical 2-1 affair against Real Sociedad in La Liga that brought Real Madrid back within striking distance just past the halfway mark. Spain’s defending champions also claimed the Spanish Supercup along the way, beating Los Blancos in the final in Saudi Arabia. Overall, the Blaugrana’s season has gone more or less according to expectations. Elche has over-performed, sitting 11th in the table in its first season back after a two-season stint in the Segunda División. Los Franjiverdes haven’t won or even drawn more than two games in a row at any point, but critically, they haven’t lost more than two games in a row, either, a pretty impressive mark for a newly-promoted side.
Elche doesn’t have any massive names and takes a pretty well-rounded approach, with 12 different players having found the back of the net at least once. Of those 12, four — striker Rafa Mir, defensive midfielder Germán Valera, striker Álvaro Rodríguez, and striker André Silva — have each scored at least four goals, with Mir leading the team with six. The distributional work has also been pretty egalitarian, with seven players registering at least two assists each. All in all, it’s worked, as Los Franjiverdes rank eighth in goals, and, perhaps most notably, second in goals per shot on target. Their defense leaves a little more to be desired, as they’ve allowed the sixth-most shots on target per 90 minutes and have to be grateful that Barça loanee Iñaki Peña and Matìas Dutiro have combined to save 73.4% of the shots on target they’ve faced. Elche also ranks in the league’s top half in both tackles and interceptions.
But even for an Elche side that has had an encouraging season, Barcelona will be an extremely tough test. The Blaugrana have by far the most devastating attack in Spain, scoring 57 goals behind the lethal quartet of Raphinha, Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski, and Ferrán Torres. Each of those four players has scored at least eight goals in La Liga, with Yamal also leading the division in assists. Because Yamal, Raphinha, and Lewandowski all missed time earlier in the season with injury, Barcelona is also deep: Marcus Rashford, Dani Olmo, and Fermin López all have at least eight goal contributions as well. Defensively, the Blaugrana haven’t been perfect, allowing merely the fourth-fewest goals in La Liga from merely the fifth-fewest shots on target, and they haven’t recorded many tackles or interceptions. Still, Joan García has thrived in between the sticks, saving more than 80% of the shots on target he’s faced, and Barcelona’s patented high line has produced 32 more offsides calls than any other team.
The Blaugrana are arguably the most vulnerable against teams who park the bus and strike on the counter-attack, but that hasn’t been Los Franjiverdes’ style, as they’ve also played possession football. The first time these teams met, Elche actually controlled 51% of the possession, but it struggled to get its attack going, as it relies heavily on drawing fouls and Barcelona has been Spain’s least foul-prone team. The Blaugrana also didn’t play their strongest side in that game, as Raphinha was sidelined with an injury. Home-field advantage could be a factor — all four of Barcelona’s non-wins have come on the road, and Los Franjiverdes have picked up the sixth-most points at home — but ultimately, I like the Blaugrana to prevail in a high-scoring affair, just as they did the first time these teams met.
