The Dallas Mavericks fell short in their last game but did get a 49-point performance from No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg, numbing the sting of a close loss. This evening at 8:30 p.m. EST, they head southward to face a division rival and duel Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets, who haven’t been able to find consistent momentum in recent weeks. Could Dallas pull off an upset here in H-Town?
Here’s a Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s game.
Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction, preview
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs are stuck between timelines at the moment, sitting 19-29 on the campaign with a blend of both young talent and experienced veterans on the roster. Trade rumors surround key pieces like Anthony David, who is currently sidelined due to an injury, but those talks will likely only intensify as we near next week’s deadline on February 5.
The Mavericks rank third in the NBA in pace and fall 22nd in NETRTG at -2.4. While the results aren’t often pretty, they’re a competitive bunch who have proven able to keep games close even without Davis in the lineup. Dallas averages 114.2 PPG (22nd) and falls 27th in OFFRTG, shooting 47.2% from the field (11th) but struggling to make shots from beyond the arc at 34.2% (27th). However, the Mavs get out in transition with the second-most points on the fast break and fourth-most points in the paint, helping make up for a lack of playmaking (25.4 AST/GM, 25th-ranked AST/TO ratio). Defensively, they’re also stronger than one may expect with 116.7 PPG allowed (21st) but the 10th-best DRTG in the league. With 45.1 rebounds per contest, the Mavericks also rank 10th in the category.
Cooper Flagg is the clear leader of this group with Davis out, averaging 19.5 PPG with 6.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists. While his shooting efficiency isn’t stellar, he does come off the best game of his short pro career after a 49-point explosion back on Thursday and surely feels energized heading into tonight. Naji Marshall posts 14.7 PPG while P.J. Washington also contributes 14.3 PPG with 7.3 boards. Klay Thompson pitches in 11.8 PPG with a 37.9% mark from three and veteran Daniel Gafford starts at center with 7.8 points and 6.2 rebounds. In the backcourt, Max Christie and Brandon Williams each average double-digit points as well.
Houston Rockets
While 7-3 across their last 10 outings, the Rockets have suffered some tough losses amongst the wins after dropping recent games to the Spurs and 76ers. It’s clear that they’re contenders at 29-17, but there are some flaws in the roster, which also took a huge hit with backup big man Steven Adams undergoing season-ending surgery this past week.
The Rockets’ NETRTG of +6.2 puts them fourth in the NBA while sitting fourth-to-last in pace. A strong defense is the key to success, allowing just 110.0 PPG (third) with the fifth-best DEFRTG in the league. Opponents have the sixth-worst eFG% when facing this team, and Houston dominates the glass with a league-leading 49.2 rebounds per game as well as the best OREB% of any team as well. Those are real strengths which help cover up a somewhat shaky offense. The Rockets average 116.1 PPG (17th) though they’re fifth in OFFRTG. They’re ninth in shooting percentage at 47.5% and eighth-best from three at 37.0% as well, though they’re second-to-last in 3PA per game. Houston also averages just 24.9 assists per game (25th) with the 28th-ranked AST/TO ratio.
Kevin Durant paces the Rockets’ scorers with 26.5 PPG, sitting just 1.4 percentage points at the free-throw line away from the coveted 50/40/90 shooting split. Alperen Sengun leads the team with 9.1 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1.5 steals, also averaging 21.1 points in the process as a key hub in the offense. Amen Thompson’s third in scoring with 18.1 PPG along with 7.7 boards and 5.4 assists while working as a point forward. Tari Eason posts 11.9 points and 6.2 rebounds, but the most notable part of his game this season is a surge to a 47.4% 3P% (albeit over just 25 games played), potentially paving the way for a hefty extension in the offseason. Finally, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard each average double-digit points as well.
Mavericks vs. Rockets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as 10.5-point home favorites tonight with -470 odds on the Moneyline. The Mavericks are +360 ML underdogs with the game total set at 222.5 points. Betting splits show 88% of straight wagers on Houston to win with 68% picking the over on the total.
Tonight marks the fourth matchup between these sides and the second this month. So far, Dallas has stunned with a 110-104 win (January 3) and another 122-109 victory (December 6) as well, only dropping the first matchup 110-102 (November 3). It’s surprising to see that game log, but it’s noteworthy that Anthony Davis did play in each of the Mavericks’ wins. Without him tonight, the tide likely shifts this time around.
The Mavs are underrated defensively, but they’ll be tested against a group long forwards and a big man who plays a bruising brand of basketball. Factor in that Gafford is essentially the only standout center on Dallas’ roster and rim protection becomes a tall task, especially since his minutes may be limited some after playing 25 or fewer in his last three contests after returning from injury. To top it off, the Rockets are a very strong defensive team themselves and have a range of versatile talents to throw at Flagg and his teammates tonight. It’s highly likely that the rookie struggles after scoring 19 points or fewer in all three meetings so far, and with him needed to carry more of the load tonight, role players around him may have to contribute more.
Sure, Houston’s been inconsistent at times this season, but the rotation brings better two-way play than Dallas’ does. Sometimes, it’s as simple as that. Watch for the Mavericks to have a tough time creating offense in the halfcourt as the Rockets grind this game to a halt and limit transition opportunities while creating plenty of turnovers, keeping the visitors under a team total of 105.5 points.
Top pick: DAL Mavericks under 105.5 points (-105)
