The Big East rolls on with another intense matchup on Friday. Villanova (15-5, 6-3) has surpassed expectations in Year One under Kevin Willard. Now, the Wildcats will look to bolster their record in front of a raucous home crowd. Heading to the Main Line tonight will be Providence (9-12, 2-8). The Friars have struggled mightily this season, angering one of the nation’s most passionate fanbases.
Can PC turn things around this evening? Villanova enters as 9.5-point favorites (-115) over Providence. The total is set at 156.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Friday’s game between the Friars and the Wildcats.
Providence vs. Villanova prediction, preview
It’s easy to forget now, but the Friars came into this season with some hype. Head coach Kim English brought in several intriguing players in the transfer portal. That includes guards Jaylin Sellers and Justin Edwards, proven high-major talents. Together, the duo have combined for 31.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game. As a unit, Providence is averaging the 16th-most points per game in college basketball (88.8). KenPom has this offense ranked 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency margin (122.6).
So what’s behind PC’s lackluster start? Arguably the nation’s worst defense. Providence is coughing up 86.1 points per game to opponents, the seventh-worst mark among all 365 Division I schools. Still, it’s fair to say that the Friars have gotten the short end of the stick. Per KenPom, their luck rating is currently at -.155, second-worst in all of college basketball. That’s cold comfort to the Friar faithful, especially after three straight losses. Perhaps the most infuriating was last Saturday’s 81-78 defeat vs. Georgetown and hated ex-coach Ed Cooley. Also worth noting: Edwards is questionable to play tonight with a foot injury.
Villanova plays a much different brand of basketball compared to their opponents tonight. Willard’s crew prefers a slower, more deliberate approach on offense. It helps to have a reliable pair of guards in upperclassmen Bryce Lindsay and Tyler Perkins. They’re accompanied by freshman phenom Acaden Lewis, who leads the team with 5.2 assists per game. Down low, Grand Canyon transfer Duke Brennan is posting a double-double (12.3 PPG, 10.7 REB). Six different Wildcats are averaging at least ten points per game this season.
Overall, this is an incredibly well-rounded roster. The ‘Cats rank 34th in offensive rating and 37th in defensive rating on KenPom. If there’s a weakness here, it’s an inability to protect the rim. Nova is blocking just 2.3 shots per game, the Big East’s worst mark. However, a smaller Providence roster may not be equipped to take advantage. Only one regular in this Friars rotation, Oswin Erhunmwunse, is taller than 6’7″.
Providence vs. Villanova pick, best bet
Villanova has been inconsistent against the nation’s best squads, going 3-4 vs. Quad 1 opponents. However, the Wildcats have gone a combined 9-1 against Quad II and III foes. That includes an 88-82 win over Providence earlier this month. With that being said, the Friars could keep things close. They lost by single digits in each of their previous three defeats. That includes a six-point game vs. UConn on Tuesday. PC, for all its flaws, has a knack for keeping things competitive. Don’t be shocked if that’s the case once again tonight.
