During the 2025 playoffs, the Denver Nuggets eliminated the LA Clippers in seven games, falling in an uncompetitive Game 7 in which each of the Nuggets’ starters and sixth man Russell Westbrook scored at least 15 points. The teams will face off for the second time this season tonight at Ball Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 9 p.m. ET.
For most of the day Friday, it looked as if the Clippers would avoid a direct playoff rematch, with three-time MVP Nikola Jokić scheduled to remain out for Denver. However, while Aaron Gordon (hamstring), Cameron Johnson (knee), and Christian Braun (ankle) remain out, Jokić is set to return (though officially listed as questionable). LA’s major injury question is Kawhi Leonard (knee), who’s questionable, but Leonard played on Tuesday night against the Utah Jazz and was effective, so it’d be a surprise if he didn’t play.
The Clippers are 1.5-point favorites (-125 on the Moneyline) for tonight’s game, with the point total set to 217.5. The Nuggets are +105 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve laid out my three player prop bets, beginning with Jokić.
Nikola Jokić U22.5 Points (-112)
It’s always a risky proposition to fade Jokić, whose scoring is typically limited by his offensive aggression more than it is any defensive scheme. However, he’s undoubtedly going to be on a fairly heavy minutes restriction as he works his way back from the hyperextended knee that’s cost him a month of action, and it’s possible that he’ll even come off the bench behind Jonas Valančiūnas, who was acquired primarily to keep the team afloat in non-Jokić minutes. Sure, the last time he faced LA, he put up a 55-point, 12-rebound masterpiece in just 33 minutes, but he’s also had a couple of games this season in which he’s attempted 10 or fewer shots.
The Clippers are a difficult matchup, given that they’re the hottest team in the league. Since December 20, LA has gone 16-3 with the league’s best net rating, ranking second on offense and sixth on defense. The Clippers’ rim protection has been a problem for much of the season, but across their hot streak, they’ve allowed the ninth-lowest field goal percentage within five feet, a zone in which more than one-third of Jokić’s attempts come. Ivica Zubac has done about as good of a job as any individual defender against Jokić, limiting him to 32-for-72 (44.4%) shooting in the teams’ first-round series last season.
Kawhi Leonard 3+ Three-Pointers Made (-106)
Despite tweaking his knee and missing LA’s three-game East Coast road trip, Leonard’s MVP-level form has not slowed down. The Clippers’ miserable start to the season and the fact that he’s missed 13 games will likely preclude him from receiving significant MVP buzz when awards are finally voted on, but he can hang with even a healthy Jokić on any given night: across his last 16 games, he’s averaged 31.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 2.3 steals per game on 51-43-92 shooting splits, making at least three three-pointers in 12 of them.
Denver should be somewhat better defensively tonight with Jokić back, as despite not being a dominant individual defender, his size, IQ, and defensive rebounding have resulted in his teams typically being of similar quality or better with him on the floor. However, Leonard’s primary defender during last season’s playoffs, Gordon, will also be absent, and in between Gordon’s initial injury on November 21 and Jokić’s on December 29, the Nuggets allowed the sixth-most catch-and-shoot triples. Leonard has shot 43.7% on such shots this season.
Jamal Murray 7+ Assists (-120)
Murray has certainly stepped up in Jokić’s absence, averaging 27.8 points and 8.3 assists per game since his co-star went down, and he’s a virtual guarantee to be named to his first career All-Star team when reserves are announced on Sunday. Across that span, he ranks 11th in touches, second in time of possession, and seventh in potential assists among the 87 players who have appeared in at least 30 minutes per game.
Some of that is likely to go down with Jokić back, but even before Jokić’s injury, Murray still ranked 13th in touches, seventh in time of possession, and 13th in potential assists, averaging 7.0 dimes per game. I’m sure Murray will re-adjust just fine to throwing passes to the league’s best tough-shot maker (Jokić leads the league in field goal percentage over expectation by a margin greater than that between second-place Luka Dončić and 42nd-place Nikola Vučević). LA’s defense is good, allowing the sixth-fewest assists per game across its hot streak, but the Jokić-Murray two-man game is better.
