Michigan vs. Michigan State College Basketball prediction, preview
We have a huge top-10 matchup on Friday night in East Lansing, with a rivalry game between the Wolverines and the Spartans. The game presents an interesting spot for both teams. Michigan is off a top-five showdown at home on Tuesday night, trailing for much of the game against a 20-0 Nebraska team, eventually pulling away for a three-point win. Michigan State had a perceived layup as a huge road favorite at Rutgers, but was clearly looking ahead to Friday night. Sparty was fortunate to get the game into overtime, and ultimately escape with the victory.
Since taking a narrow road loss at Nebraska at the beginning of the month, Michigan State has ripped off a seven-game winning streak. The first six wins were all by double digits in games that Sparty absolutely dominated — with an average margin of victory of more than 22 points, until getting out of New Jersey with a nine-point win over Rutgers.
Since barely pulling out a two-point win against Penn State, Michigan hasn’t appeared to have the same level of dominance. While the Wolverines are 6-1 over their last seven games, the loss was a bad one as a 19-point favorite to Wisconsin, and they are 0-7 ATS in those games. Michigan is tied with a brutal Oregon team for the worst ATS record against Big Ten competition at just 2-8. While Michigan has won all five of its road games outright, its also 0-5 ATS in those matchups.
This game has been on the board at DraftKings Sportsbook since Wednesday, and while early money showed up more than 90% to Michigan, the split have started to level off. I actually lean to Michigan State to get the win in a game that home court should play a massive role. That said, I feel the stronger play is on the total. The bulk of the early money has come in on the total to go over, which I believe is the wrong play.
After a blazing start by both teams on Tuesday against Nebraska (98 total points), Michigan played to its defensive identity in the second half to earn the win. It outscored the Huskers 27-22 over the final 20 minutes. Michigan State completely let its guard down against Rutgers, giving up 79 points — 73 of which came in regulation.
But if we look back on the season, these teams have developed into national contenders because of their defenses. KenPom ranks Sparty the top defense in the country. Guess who checks in at No. 2? Yes, that’d be the Wolverines. In fact, Michigan is 13-7 to the under this season, including five straight unders in Big Ten play. Michigan State has been even more convincing when it comes to playing to the under, with unders going 15-6 in its games. That dominant win streak that Sparty is on has been fueled by defense, with seven straight games going under, prior to Tuesday.
Unders have gone 9-3 in home games for Michigan State, and also 4-1 in Michigan road games. I also expect Tom Izzo’s squad to try to control the pace on home court, and Sparty plays at one of the slowest adjusted tempos in the country at 277th.
If we go back historically in this matchup, five of the last six games have stayed under the total, including all four head-to-head meetings over the last two seasons. All four of those unders also would have cashed using the opening total in this game, which was 145.5. I’m pretty surprised to see that it’s moved up to 147.5, as of Friday morning.
The bottom line is that this game should be an all out war between two of the best teams in the country, both of which lean on their defenses to win games. I’m expecting a very competitive and physical game, which could turn into a bit of a rock fight for stretches. If we can avoid a bunch of late fouls to extend the game or overtime, I’m expecting the under to cash in this one.
CBB Pick: UNDER 147.5 (-110)
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