During the Los Angeles Lakers’ Christmas Day game against the Houston Rockets, Austin Reaves never emerged from the locker room after halftime, having re-aggravated the calf strain that had previously held him out for all but one game since December 10. It appears that that wait for Reaves’ return is finally over, as he’s been upgraded to questionable in advance of the Lakers’ 7 p.m. ET road game against the Washington Wizards.
In addition to Reaves, Los Angeles has one major name on the injury report: Luka Dončić is questionable with ankle soreness after slipping off of the raised court in Cleveland’s Rocket Arena, but given that he returned to that game, I’d expect him to play with no restrictions and for Reaves to play off the bench with a minutes restriction. As for Washington, it’ll likely be missing Marvin Bagley III (thoracic) and Tristan Vukcevic (hamstring) again, with rookie Tre Johnson possibly joining them after suffering an ankle sprain in last night’s win over the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Lakers are 9.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-360 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 229.5. The Wizards are +285 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down Los Angeles’ third-to-last game of the Grammy Trip and offer my prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards preview, prediction
As they have been all season, the Lakers have been inconsistent on the Grammy Trip, opening it with arguably their most impressive win of the season — a 15-point comeback to beat the Denver Nuggets — but losing by 30 on Wednesday night against the Evan Mobley-less Cleveland Cavaliers despite it being a two-point game at halftime. All in all, Los Angeles has hung around an ultra-competitive Western Conference playoff picture, leading the Phoenix Suns for the sixth seed by virtue of a tiebreaker, which isn’t too bad, and it should be better now that Reaves is back.
Washington hasn’t been as competitive lately, losing nine straight before finally rattling off two straight wins, but the Wizards’ only goal this season is to see signs from their young players while losing enough games to keep their top-eight protected pick, and so far, they’ve done just that. Alex Sarr has taken big strides in his second season, especially defensively, and both Johnson and Kyshawn George look like building blocks for the future. Washington will re-evaluate the recently-acquired Trae Young after the All-Star break.
Lakers at Wizards pick, best bet
If Reaves returns, he should have a major impact on the Lakers’ offense. This season, with him on the court, Los Angeles has scored 120.6 points per 100 possessions, which would be tied for the league’s second-best mark, and while he’s had a somewhat more neutral effect on the Lakers’ defense, that side of the ball isn’t their calling card regardless. His playmaking and ball-handling should help open up more opportunities for all of Los Angeles’ shooters and should make Dončić’s life easier, opening up an avenue for the player with the third-lowest expected field goal percentage and the most on-ball perimeter gravity to find some more manageable looks.
With or without Reaves, there won’t be much defense played in this game. The Wizards rank second-to-last in defensive rating this season and the Lakers sixth-to-last. Plus, Washington has given up the second-highest field goal percentage in the restricted area and Los Angeles the second-highest (a mark that has risen to a putrid 73.9% in the seven weeks since Reaves suffered his initial calf strain). The Lakers still have the overall edge in the paint because their superior perimeter defense has been better at snuffing out layups before they happen and because they’ve been an elite rebounding and finishing team, but they’re definitely porous if George — who ranks just outside the league’s top 50 in drives per game — is able to get downhill.
Both teams are fairly turnover-prone, the Wizards because of their youth and Los Angeles because Dončić, Reaves, and LeBron James — all above-average to savant-level passers — attempt passes that most playmakers wouldn’t dare. However, the Lakers have been better at taking advantage of opponents’ mistakes, ranking 15th in points off of turnovers while Washington ranks 27th. Los Angeles can be beaten by younger, more athletic teams on fast-breaks, but the Wizards, a league-average transition team, isn’t quite clinical enough to push the pace. The Lakers should also dominate the free-throw differential: Washington is extremely foul-prone without drawing much contact itself, and all three of Los Angeles’ stars are masters at getting to the charity stripe.
The Lakers’ superior ability to close out on opposing three-point shooters should seal their edge. This season, Washington has conceded the sixth-most wide-open threes, and with Reaves — who ranks a solid 44th league-wide in three-point percentage over expectation, though still behind both Dončić and Rui Hachimura — Los Angeles should be well-suited to take advantage. Reaves’ lackluster defense might hurt the Lakers’ ability to challenge the Wizards’ shooters — they allowed nearly two more wide-open threes per game before Reaves’ injuries than after — but Washington isn’t exactly built to make the most of those increased opportunities, especially if its best shooter, Johnson, is sidelined.
With Los Angeles having an advantage in every facet of the game and likely to get an emotional and offensive boost with one of its best players likely returning, it should be in good position to cover the spread. Questions remain about the Lakers’ championship bona fides, but it has had no trouble beating sub-.500 teams, posting a solid 19-8 record against the league’s bottom feeders.
