The Australian Open Women’s Singles Final between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina begins at 3:30. a.m. ET in Melbourne.
Sabalenka is -165 on the moneyline, while Rybakina is +135. This is my best bet to target on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Sabalenka vs. Rybakina match.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Preview
Aryna Sabalenka has bulldozed her way through the competition in this tournament so far. The World No. 1 has yet to drop a set through six matches. The most impressive part is that she has only gotten better as time has gone on and the competition has gotten tougher. She defeated Elina Svitolina 6-2, 6-2 in the semifinals and Iva Jovic 6-3, 6-0 in the quarterfinals.
Sabalenka has been the dominant force in the women’s game over the past few years. She has become a name that you can pencil into any major final that is being held on hardcourt. She has now made seven straight finals between the Australian Open and the US Open. Sabalenka has a 4-2 record in those finals. If she plays her best tennis, nobody in the women’s game can touch her. As has always been the case with Sabalenka, her mental game is the only concern. If she gets too flustered or frustrated, she can give the match away.
Elena Rybakina has been sensational in this tournament. The No. 5 player in the world is arguably playing the best tennis of her career at this Australian Open. Just like Sabalenka, she has not dropped a set throughout the entire tournament leading up to this final. She has also faced much tougher competition than Sabalenka, having to take down Jessica Pegula and Iga Swiatek, two of the top six players in the world. Rybakina’s serve in particular has been sensational. She has 41 aces in this tournament, 14 more than the next best woman, and nearly twice as many as Sabalenka. This would be Rybakina’s second career major title, her first coming at Wimbledon in 2022.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for the 2026 Australian Open Final is on Elena Rybakina to pull the upset over Aryna Sabalenka. Sabalenka has been by far the most consistent and the best player in women’s tennis the last several years. However, in these finals, she has been far from a sure thing. Last year, Sabalenka made three Grand Slam Finals, but only won the last of the three at the US Open. Last year, Madison Keys defeated Sabalenka as a massive underdog in the Australian Open Final. Rybakina is 1-1 in Grand Slam Finals in her career, with the loss coming to Sabalenka in the 2023 Australian Open.
Sabalenka and Rybakina are incredibly familiar with each other, having faced off in plenty of big matches over the years. The two have played each other 14 times, with Sabalenka leading the head-to-head 8-6. Sabalenka got the better of Rybakina the only time they faced in a major final. However, Rybakina bested Sabalenka in their most recent meeting in the final of the 2025 WTA Finals. While it wasn’t a Grand Slam, there were 2.5 million dollars and the honor of being the “champion” of the season on the line, and Rybakina took her down in straight sets.
While Sabalenka has played her best tennis on hard surfaces over the years, that is actually where Rybakina has gotten the better of her. In their last eight head-to-head meeting on hardcourt, Rybakina is 6-2 against Sabalenka. That includes the 2025 WTA Finals final, the 2024 Brisbane International final and the 2023 Indian Wells final. While those aren’t Grand Slams, they are all massive events on hardcourt where Rybakina bested Sabalenka in the final.
Both of these women are playing at an incredibly high level in this tournament, and it’s hard to put one ahead of the other based on performance. However, Rybakina’s serve is on another level. If she can maintain that level of excellence for one more match, she can counteract how strong Sabalenka is in the return game. If Rybakina is serving at such a high level, it will frustrate Sabalenka and could force her to press on her own service matches. When it comes to composure on the court, Rybakina has a massive advantage over Sabalenka. If Sabalenka plays her best tennis, she will probably win. However, Rybakina has the tools to get into Sabalenka’s head and take her down on this big stage.
