On January 4, 2020, Tom Brady threw a goal-line pick-six to Logan Ryan late in a Wild Card Round loss to the Tennessee Titans, and the New England Patriots’ dynasty came to an end. At the time, it was presumed that the Patriots would experience several years of struggle before eventually making it back to the promised land.
That eventuality came sooner than most observers might have expected, as just one season after finishing 4-13, this New England team raced its way to the 2025 AFC title behind an MVP-level campaign from Drake Maye and will face the Seattle Seahawks for football’s loftiest prize on February 8. The Patriots most recently competed in the title game just seven years ago, when they edged out the Los Angeles Rams, 13-3.
That New England victory was the sixth and final in the Brady-Bill Belichick era, and it capped off the Patriots’ run of three straight Super Bowl appearances after they’d beaten the Atlanta Falcons in 2017 and lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in 2018. However, this current iteration still has shades of the dynastic reign: Mike Vrabel, who was a linebacker on New England’s 2001, 2003, and 2004 title-winning teams, is now the Patriots’ head coach.
In 2018, New England went 11-5 to earn the second seed in the playoffs in the penultimate Pro Bowl campaign of Brady’s career. In addition to Brady, that iteration of the Patriots was led by a two-headed running back committee (James White, who did most of his damage through the air, and a more traditional running back in Sony Michel), as well as veteran wide receivers Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Their offensive talent was bolstered by a strong secondary that limited opposing quarterbacks to the sixth-fewest adjusted yards per attempt, led by All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore. New England stepped up when it mattered, out-lasting the upstart Kansas City Chiefs in an overtime AFC Championship Game thriller.
The current iteration has slightly different strengths. Maye is arguably a better player than that 41-year-old version of Brady, though he’s had an underwhelming first playoff campaign so far. He’s certainly a more accurate passer, as he’s completed his passes at a rate 6.2 percentage points higher than Brady did despite his average target being 1.3 yards deeper, and he also offers far more as a runner than that version of Brady. However, neither Rhamondre Stevenson nor TreVeyon Henderson is as dominant through the air as White was, Maye doesn’t have the same level of chemistry with Stefon Diggs as Brady did with Edelman, and Hunter Henry is certainly no Gronk. Plus, these Patriots have had closer to a league-average secondary, and its playoff offense has been less convincing.
In the end, New England found a way to win an ugly, scrappy Super Bowl LIII, with Brady’s two reliable targets, Edelman (141 yards) and Gronkowski (87 yards) leading the way. It was hardly the finest Super Bowl performance of Brady’s career, but in the fourth quarter, he led a drive that culminated in a Michel run, and the running back iced the game on the next possession by gaining nearly every yard on a possession that ended in a Steven Gostkowski field goal. The Patriots’ defense held Rams quarterback Jared Goff to just a 50% completion percentage and sacked him four times.
New England will need a strong performance from both Maye and the defense in order to beat the Seahawks next Sunday. The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 45.5. Seattle is -230 on the Moneyline, and New England is +190.
