The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Northwestern Wildcats in a Thursday night Big Ten battle. The game tips off at 8:00 p.m. ET in Evanston, Illinois.
The Wildcats are listed as 7.5-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 148.5 points. Let’s dive into a full preview, prediction, and pick for this Big Ten showdown.
Northwestern vs. Penn State prediction, preview
This game is a battle of two of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Penn State sits at the very bottom of the conference, with a 0-9 record in Big Ten play. In 2022-23, Micah Shrewsberry led this program to 23 wins and the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Shrewsberry departed after that season for the Notre Dame job. Penn State subsequently hired Mike Rhoades, and things have been moving in the wrong direction. The Nittany Lions finished ninth in the conference in 2023, second-to-last in the conference in 2024, and now seem destined to finish at the bottom of the Big Ten. Penn State has a couple of guards who can score the basketball, but the Nittany Lions are awful on the defensive end of the floor and can’t score enough to make up for it. Penn State currently ranks 125th in KenPom, squarely between Southern Illinois and Eastern Tennessee State.
Things have not been much better in Evanston this season. Northwestern is 1-8 in conference play. The Wildcats are wasting a standout season from senior forward Nick Martinelli. Martinelli has spent all four years at Northwestern, a rarity in modern college basketball. He had a great junior season, but has taken it to another level this season, averaging 23.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. Martinelli ranks fourth in the nation in scoring this season, just tenths of a point behind the likes of AJ Dybansta and Cameron Boozer. However, outside of Martinelli, most other players on the Northwestern roster struggle to put the ball in the basket. The Wildcats have also struggled to close out games against teams like Minnesota and Rutgers, who are around their level in the conference. Needless to say, this is a must-win game for Northwestern against a Penn State team that is winless in the conference.
Northwestern vs. Penn State pick
My best bet for this game is for Northwestern to go over its team total of 78.5 points. The Wildcats have by far the best player on the floor, Nick Martinelli. Martinelli has taken advantage of some of the worst defenses in the league, of which Penn State is one. The Nittany Lions are giving up 77.8 points per game this season, the second-most among Big Ten teams. Teams are making 9.7 three-pointers per game against Penn State, the most allowed in the Big Ten. Martinelli should get his in this game, and if Penn State sells out to stop him, it should lead to easy buckets for the Wildcats. In Penn State’s last three losses, it gave up 84 points to Ohio State, 98 points to Wisconsin and 96 points to Maryland. Northwestern should join the party and put up a big number at home against the Nittany Lions.
