The Timberwolves are hosting the Thunder on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 227.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for the game.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder preview, prediction
This will be the third matchup of the season between these Western Conference foes. The Thunder took the first matchup in Oklahoma City 113-105 and the Timberwolves took the second matchup in Minnesota 112-107. Oklahoma City won that first matchup despite Jalen Williams being inactive, which will be the case again tonight, as the forward is dealing with a hamstring injury.
The Thunder are a stellar 21-3 with Williams out this season, but two of those losses have come in their last three games. Despite being at home, where the team has been nearly unbeatable the last two seasons, Oklahoma City lost these games to the Pacers and the Raptors. That victory for Indiana marked just the club’s third road win this season, so the Thunder losing this game was shocking to say the least.
This defending champion Oklahoma City team still leads the NBA with a 38-10 record and ranks first in net rating this season, but the Thunder is only 9-5 in the month of January. Williams being sidelined appears to be catching up to the club, and Alex Caruso (adductor) and Ajay Mitchell (abdominal) both being out tonight doesn’t help, either. Both these guards rank in the top five in plus/minus for Oklahoma City this season.
Make no mistake, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the helm, the Thunder are still an elite team even with those key players sidelined, but they are struggling by their standards right now. As always when facing the defending champions, the Timberwolves should be highly motivated to beat Oklahoma City tonight.
Similar to the Thunder, Minnesota hasn’t been playing up to its ability recently. The Timberwolves won their second straight with a 118-105 win over the Mavericks last night, but before this, Minnesota had lost five games in a row. The Timberwolves are 29-19 and rank ninth in net rating this season, but they are only 8-6 in the new year.
Rudy Gobert (ankle) is questionable to play tonight and if he were to sit, Minnesota’s defense would suffer significantly. With the four-time Defensive Player of the Year off the floor this season, the Timberwolves’ defensive rating is a huge 9.6 points per 100 possessions worse than with him on. Naz Reid would likely start if Gobert is out and is a great player, but Reid would have a very difficult time filling the void left by Gobert on the defensive end. Anthony Edwards has been awesome vs. the Thunder this season, scoring 31 and 26 points in two matchups, and the guard will need to have another big performance tonight if Minnesota wants to take down the Thunder.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder pick, best bet
While the Thunder and Timberwolves both have had hiccups recently, Oklahoma City is still the better team. With the club not playing since Tuesday, compared to this Minnesota team that just competed in Dallas last night, it’s difficult to pick against the Thunder in this matchup.
When Oklahoma City has been the more rested team this season, the club is a perfect 13-0 with a massive 19.7-point margin of victory. The Thunder are 8-5 ATS in this situation and backing them to cover this 6.5-point spread makes sense tonight.
