In the wide-open Eastern Conference, the Heat (25-23, 8th in East) and Bulls (23-24, 10th in East) still have a shot at the postseason. Still, given their middling records, both teams need to start racking up wins. This is the first of three games in a row between Miami and Chicago. These clubs are about to get very familiar with one another.
The Heat are 2.5-point favorites (-110) over the Bulls on DraftKings Sportsbook. Miami is favored at -142 on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at 236.5 points. Here’s my preview, prediction, and pick for Thursday’s Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls game.
Heat vs. Bulls prediction, preview
One thing is for certain: these teams love to play fast. Miami and Chicago both rank within the NBA’s top five in terms of pace. For the visitors, the leading catalyst has been Norman Powell. Acquired from the Clippers this summer, the veteran leads the Heat with 23.0 points per game. That production has been crucial given the injury-related absences for Tyler Herro. The guard is set to miss tonight’s contest due to a rib injury. Down low, the duo of Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware has impressed in South Beach.
In many ways, the Heat have underperformed. Their +1.1 net rating is good enough for 14th in the NBA. Over Miami’s last five games, that number has risen to +4.7, ninth-best in basketball. Erik Spoelstra’s squad wields the sport’s tenth-best defensive rating as well (113.5). However, their breakneck speed on offense lends itself to frequent shootouts. That’s led to some high variance on any given night. Opponents have scored 120+ points against the Heat in 21 of their 48 contests. On the flip side, Miami has scored 120+ on 21 different occasions, as well.
As previously mentioned, the Bulls love pushing the pace, as well. It’s fair to say that there’s a high likelihood this one becomes a shootout. In that regard, Chicago has several players who could give the Heat problems. The leading candidate is Coby White, a multi-faceted scorer that has been on a tear recently. The guard has notched 21+ points in five of his previous six appearances. He’ll be joined by two-time All-Star Nikola Vucevic down low. Despite his clear defensive limitations, the center remains a high-end offensive talent. Over 46 games this season, Vooch is putting up 17.0 points, 9.1 rebounds and 3.8 assists.
With that being said, Chicago’s current face of the franchise is Josh Giddey. The Australian has enjoyed a career year in the Windy City. Through 34 games, he’s recorded 18.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 8.8 assists. That level of all-around production is difficult to come by. Head coach Billy Donovan has monitored the guard’s minutes as he returns from a hamstring injury. Still, it’s only a matter of time until Giddey’s workload returns to normal. As of Thursday afternoon, the 23-year-old is listed as questionable.
The biggest issue for the Bulls is on defense. They are giving up 119.8 points per game to opponents, fifth-worst in the league. Vucevic, for all his offensive skill, can struggle to protect the rim. On the perimeter, opponents are knocking down 37% of their three-point attempts vs. Chicago. That’s tied for the NBA’s fifth-highest mark.
Heat vs. Bulls pick, best bet
Entering tonight’s matchup, Chicago appears to be the healthier unit. Still, Miami has found ways to win games shorthanded all season. With respect to Herro and Davion Mitchell (shoulder), there’s still ample talent on this roster. The Bulls aren’t pushovers, having won games against contenders such as Boston and Minnesota recently. However, they’ve also lost to bottom-feeders such as Brooklyn and Indiana this month. The Heat are the more consistent, better coached club; that should make a difference tonight.
