Just 12 months ago, Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel were the two best players on a Duke men’s basketball team that sat at 18-2 (10-0) halfway through the NCAA season. And they were roommates.
Now, their relationship has shifted from an aligned one into a more adversarial one, though they remain close friends. Flagg — picked first overall in last summer’s NBA Draft — has his Dallas Mavericks in 11th in the Western Conference, while Knueppel, picked fourth, has his Charlotte Hornets 11th in the East. They also have the two shortest odds to win Rookie of the Year at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Flagg at -400 and Knueppel at +280.
They’ll face off for the first time in their professional careers tonight when the Hornets travel to face the Mavericks at 8:30 p.m. ET. Charlotte should be completely healthy, though it’s possible that LaMelo Ball will come off the bench in the second night of the back-to-back. Besides Dallas’ long-term injuries (Anthony Davis, Dante Exum, Kyrie Irving, and Dereck Lively II), it should be healthy as well, with Flagg presumably ready to go after taking last night’s game off and Klay Thompson (knee soreness) a possibility.
The Hornets are 4.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-175 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 226.5. The Mavericks are +145 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this much-anticipated clash and offer my prediction.
Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks preview, prediction
Charlotte has been hot lately, winning nine of its last 14 games. In that span, Knueppel has averaged 16.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game on extremely efficient 48-39-92 shooting splits, and it’s considered a matter of when, not if, Knueppel will eventually break the rookie three-point record. He’s gotten plenty of help from the rest of his roster: Ball has appeared in each of the last 22 games — his longest consecutive stretch since the 2021-22 season — and has made 41.4% of his threes. It’s a testament to the Hornets’ rebuild that Ball, a former All-Star, is arguably the their third-best young asset, given that 2023 second overall pick Brandon Miller has cleared 20 points in eight straight games on a 65.2% effective field goal percentage.
Dallas has been in strong form, too, as it had won four straight games before dropping back-to-back decisions to the Los Angeles Lakers and, last night, the Minnesota Timberwolves without Flagg or Thompson. Flagg has been somewhat inconsistent as a scorer this month, posting just 43-28-75 shooting splits since the start of January, though part of that could be a result of the ankle injury that has held him out of three games. Instead, it’s been Naji Marshall picking up the scoring load, averaging 16.9 points per game since the start of December, as well as the other piece of the Luka Dončić return, Max Christie, who’s emerged as one of the league’s best shooters.
Hornets at Mavericks pick, best bet
Over the last month, Charlotte has been playing at a contender-level. In the last 14 games, in fact, the Hornets have out-scored opponents by 13.7 points per 100 possessions, 4.6 more than any other team. They’ve been dominant on both sides of the ball, posting the league’s best offense and the third-best defense. Part of it is the result of a couple of lopsided victories over bad teams, such as a 55-point triumph over the Utah Jazz, but they’ve also beaten the Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Lakers, Orlando Magic, and Philadelphia 76ers, all in convincing fashion.
Charlotte’s strong month has been driven by elite interior play, especially on the glass. Across the last 14 games, the Hornets have snagged 56.4% of all available rebounds — including 37.9% of all available offensive rebounds — and have scored the 12th-most points in the paint and the most second-chance points in the league. They’ve also allowed the ninth-fewest points in the paint and second-chance points while giving up the fifth-fewest attempts in the restricted area. Meanwhile, in the nine games since Anthony Davis went down with his most recent injury, the Mavericks have given up the fourth-most attempts in the restricted area, though they’ve still scored the fifth-most points in the paint and had a top-10 rebounding percentage.
Transition play is where Dallas can make up some of the edge. The Mavericks have been by far the best fast-break team in the league without the semi-lumbering Davis, averaging 4.8 more fast-break points per game than the next-best team since his latest injury and also posting top-12 marks in points off of turnovers and opponent points off of turnovers. Meanwhile, Charlotte has been the league’s most turnover-prone team across its hot streak and has also recorded the fewest steals and third-fewest blocks. The ultra-disciplined Mavericks should also have a massive advantage in free-throw differential, as they’ve been among the least foul-prone teams while drawing among the most whistles.
Dallas’ shooting woes may have been somewhat alleviated, as it ranks 10th in three-point percentage since Davis’ injury. But there’s an element of luck to that: across that span, the Mavericks rank third league-wide with an unsustainable 44.0% mark on wide-open threes, with Jaden Hardy (57.9%) and Thompson (61.5%) in especially hot form. The Hornets’ offense is somewhat more legitimate, as over the last 14 games, they’ve generated the eighth-most wide-open threes and hit them at the ninth-highest rate. Defensively, it’s a different story: Charlotte has allowed the seventh-most uncontested triples and opponents have shot just 33.0% on such shots. Dallas has gotten fortunate too — its opponents have hit 33.8% of their wide-open threes since Davis’ injury — but it allows nearly two fewer wide-open looks per game than the Hornets do.
Ultimately, while Charlotte holds a slight edge on the interior and a somewhat larger edge shooting, its indiscipline and good defensive shooting fortune will eventually catch up to it. The Mavericks have been lucky too, but their strong transition play, relentless driving, disciplined defense, and rebounding that’s nearly as good as the Hornets’ is a sustainable formula for success, and they have home-court advantage, which should amount to a net swing of 1.1 points per 100 possessions. Charlotte should win, but not as easily as the raw numbers might suggest.
