The men’s Australian Open semifinals take place on Thursday night for American audiences. In the first match, the No. 2 player in the world, Carlos Alcaraz, takes on the No. 3 player, Alexander Zverev. The match begins at 10:30 p.m. ET
This is my best bet to target on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Alcaraz vs. Zverev match.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev Preview
Carlos Alcaraz has achieved a remarkable amount in the sport in his young career. However, this is his first trip to the Australian Open semifinals. Alcaraz has seemingly figured out the one Grand Slam venue that has given him trouble over the years. He is just one win away from his first final in Melbourne, where he will likely face Jannik Sinner, again. Although, he will first need to get through an opponent that has given him trouble over the years. Alcaraz has had no issues at this tournament so far, with his first five opponents all failing to win a set. His annihilation of the No. 6 player in the world, and local Australian, Alex de Minaur, was a sign of how big the chasm is between the very top of the sport and everyone else. This semifinal will be a big test for Alcaraz, but he seems determined to complete the career Grand Slam this weekend.
Alexander Zverev is still chasing his first career major title. Zverev has been arguably the fourth-best player of this decade behind Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic. Before this tournament, Zverev has had nine Grand Slam semifinal appearances in six years. He now adds another semifinal appearance to that list to start off 2026. Of those nine semifinals, Zverev has made the final three times, including last year’s Australian Open. However, he has never gotten it done in any of those three Grand Slam final appearances. Zverev has the nearly impossible task of likely having to beat Alcaraz and Sinner in back-to-back matches to win his first major. He should feel that he can at least pull off that first upset, as he has had real success against Alcaraz over the years.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this semifinal match is for Alexander Zverev to cover the spread of 1.5 sets at odds of +185. This is a lot of value on Zverev being able to either push Alcaraz to a fifth set or win. These two great players have faced off 12 times in the past, and each of them has won six times. The biggest match the two ever played was the 2024 Roland Garros Final. That was an absolute blockbuster match, which Alcaraz won in five sets. He snatched away what looked like Zverev’s first major after Zverev led 2:1. The duo has faced off once before at the Australian Open, where Zverev knocked Alcaraz out in the 2024 quarterfinals.
Alexander Zverev has been serving at a high level in this tournament. He leads the field with 80 aces so far. Despite the power of his serve, Zverev is also getting 72% of his first serves in play, the highest mark of the men’s semifinalists. Zverev’s return game has also been quite strong. At this point there is a lot of familiarity with Alcaraz’s game and Zverev should feel confident that he can compete wire to wire. Zverev is the one with more success in Australia, indicated by the final appearance last year and the head-to-head win over Alcaraz in 2024. Carlos Alcaraz, a true magician, might pull a fifth-set comeback win out of his hat. However, Zverev should take him down to the wire and give himself a real chance to advance to the Australian Open Final.
