Tennessee vs. Georgia College Basketball prediction, preview
Tennessee had been a fade on the road for me early in the season, and a successful one. The Vols began the year 0-3 in true road games, including 0-3 against the spread, losing by an average of more than 12 points per game. They got the monkey off their back in a big way on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. The Vols took down Alabama by a score of 79-73 in a game that opened Tennessee as a 3.5-point underdog, and touched as high as six points on the spread.
Now the Vols are on the road again, but working with some good momentum in what should be a favorable matchup. Yes, Georgia has one of the highest scoring offenses in the nation, but we’ve seen it slowed down of late. The Bulldogs managed just 67 points on Saturday in Austin, marking the fourth time in six games that this team has scored 77 points or less.
Essentially, SEC defenses are getting to the Bulldogs, and Tennessee featured one of the best defenses in the country (ranked 14th on KenPom). But the advantages for the Vols don’t stop there. Tennessee has the highest rebounding rate in the country. The Vols have a ton of size and crash the glass, which works directly against a smaller UGA team that ranks near the bottom of the nation in rebounding. One of the keys to victory in Tuscaloosa for the Vols was out-rebounding Bama 42 to 33 — against a Crimson Tide team that also struggles on the glass, but did add Charles Bediako for that game.
Finally, Tennessee’s defense also did a good job of limiting Alabama from downtown on Saturday, and we know the Tide love to jack up three-pointers. Bama shot just 23% from distance in the game. Georgia also isn’t a great shooting team, and gets a lot of their points by playing with pace. Tennessee’s defense should be able to slow Georgia down, and defense the line well over a poor shooting team.
While the Bulldogs are 11-1 at home, they are also 5-7 ATS in those games. This is arguably Georgia’s toughest home test of the season, and one of the worst matchups they have seen. We’re a little late to the party here, as the Vols did open up a short underdog in the game, but I agree with the sharp movement to the road team.
I’ll back the Vols to go to Athens and emerge with a second consecutive road victory.
