As the NBA trade deadline approaches next Thursday, all eyes will be on the Golden State Warriors, whose fortunes changed dramatically on January 19, when Jimmy Butler III tore his ACL, knocking him out for the rest of the season. Golden State could move Butler’s contract to seek a short-term upgrade at the deadline, seeking to maximize the final few seasons of Stephen Curry’s career.
It’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that its opponent tonight, the Utah Jazz, could help facilitate a deal, given that the Jazz took on a second-round pick for aiding last deadline’s blockbuster Luka Dončić deal. It’s also possible that Utah could trade Lauri Markkanen, though it’s likely that only a massive offer would move the needle.
For now, though, Butler is a Warrior, and Markkanen is on the Jazz. In addition to Butler, Seth Curry (sciatica) and Jonathan Kuminga (knee) are out for Golden State, and LJ Cryer (hamstring) is questionable. Jusuf Nurkić (illness) and Cody Williams (illness) are questionable for Utah, with Kevin Love (rest) out.
The Warriors are 8.5-point favorites (-305 on the Moneyline) for tonight’s game, and the Jazz are +245 on the Moneyline. The point total is set to 241.5. Below, I’ve laid out my three player prop bets.
Keyonte George 25+ Points (-105)
After taking the day off last night, George should be well-rested as he makes his final push to be considered for a Western Conference All-Star reserve spot. If All-Star reserves were solely based off of games played between January 12 and January 24, George would be a shoo-in, as he averaged 27.3 points per game on 47-40-91 shooting splits across that span, surpassing the 25-point threshold five times. To be fair, some of his increased scoring responsibility was a result of Markkanen missing all but one game, but Markkanen will likely be on a minutes restriction anyways. Plus, Markkanen’s gravity helps open up easier shots for his teammates.
Meanwhile, Golden State’s defense has been expectedly poor since losing Butler, as in that span, the Warriors have given up the 11th-most points per game. To be fair, it’s not all a result of Butler’s injury — Stephen Curry and Draymond Green both sat out Monday’s loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves — but in Butler, Golden State lost its second-best all-around defender, per composite metric D-LEBRON. With Butler off the floor, the Warriors’ opponents have seen a 1.5-percentage-point jump in their true shooting percentage. Golden State has also given up an above-average number of wide-open threes, and George has converted such shots at a 50.6% rate.
Stephen Curry 6+ Assists (-109)
Playmaking hasn’t been Curry’s primary responsibility this season — he’s averaging a career-low 5.0 assists per game — but without Butler to serve as a secondary playmaker, his responsibility should increase. He’s been passing the ball more in January, recording at least six assists in seven of his 12 games, averaging 6.5 assists per game across that span. All in all, he’s averaged 43.2 passes and 10.6 potential assists per game in January, up from 38.5 passes and 8.4 potential assists per game through the end of 2025.
While scoring should continue to be Curry’s priority against Utah, which isn’t built to stop him, the Jazz play quickly enough and are awful enough defensively that he should be able to both score and facilitate. Because Utah has allowed 4.7 more points per game than any other team, it has also allowed two more assists per game. Curry should be able to use his league-best gravity to open up easy shots for his teammates, though that shouldn’t be an issue regardless against the Jazz, who have allowed the most wide-open threes per game.
Moses Moody 3+ Three-Pointers Made (-101)
Moody has had a great month, hitting from deep at a 45.5% clip across that span and nailing three of more made threes in six of his last eight games. He did shoot just two-for-seven from beyond the arc in the Warriors’ loss to Minnesota, but he didn’t have Curry and Green to set him up in that one, and the Timberwolves have given up a fairly difficult overall shot diet. That’s not the case against Utah: as noted, the Jazz haven’t even gotten within six feet of the shooter on some 60% of the three-point attempts they’ve given up. Moody has been a solid 38.5% on uncontested triples.
