Tipping off in the later portion of tonight’s nine-game NBA slate, the Utah Jazz will host the Golden State Warriors at the Delta Center.
Tonight will mark the third of four regular-season matchups between these Western Conference opponents. The Warriors produced a convincing 134-117 home victory in November, then won 123-114 in San Francisco earlier this month.
However, Golden State’s outlook has changed drastically since Jimmy Butler suffered a season-ending injury.
The Warriors enter as 8.5-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Jazz sit as a +245 underdog. The game total is set at 241.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview and prediction for Wednesday’s Western Conference matchup.
Warriors at Jazz Preview
The Warriors currently hold a 26-23 record, good for eighth place in the West. They appeared to be trending upward until Jimmy Butler suffered a season-ending injury. Golden State has dropped three of its last four games, which halted all momentum from the team’s recent four-game winning streak.
This season, the Warriors are 23-25 against the spread, and they’ve covered the over in 28 of their 48 games.
Alongside Butler, Jonathan Kuminga also remains out. Meanwhile, Gary Payton II and Stephen Curry are listed as probable. Even at 37, Curry is still proving to be one of the league’s more dominant offensive forces. The 11-time All-Star is averaging 27.3 points, five assists, and 3.7 rebounds, while leading the NBA in threes per game.
Outside of Curry, cracks have begun to show throughout Golden State’s roster. With Butler sidelined, Brandin Podziemski is the team’s next leading scorer at 12.2 points per game. Draymond Green has shown his age, and his defensive impact has diminished. Buddy Hield, DeAnthony Melton, Moses Moody, Al Horford, Pat Spencer, and Quentin Post round out most of the notable rotation, which tends to change on a night-to-night basis.
The Warriors rank 17th in scoring and 16th in offensive rating, though they still lead the league in threes per game. On the other end, they’ve allowed the 10th-fewest points per game and rank sixth in defensive rating.
It’s not exactly a secret that the Jazz entered this season with the goal of maximizing their chances at next year’s NBA Draft lottery. Just past the halfway point of the season, Utah holds a 15-32 record and sits at 13th in the conference. The Jazz enter Wednesday’s matchup on a three-game slide and have dropped seven of their last nine games.
This season, Utah has gone 25-22 against the spread and covered the over in 29 of 47 games.
Utah’s injury report is typically crowded on a game-by-game basis. The team remains without Walker Kessler and Georges Niang, while Kevin Love has been ruled out due to rest. Cody Williams and Jusuf Nurkic are also listed as questionable. Still, Keyonte George is expected to return to the floor after missing the previous game against the Clippers.
George has emerged as a key part of this Jazz team and exceeded expectations this season. The Baylor product is averaging 24.2 points, 6.6 assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game. Lauri Markkanen continues to lead the charge with 27.7 points and 7.1 rebounds a night. Brice Sensabaugh, Jusuf Nurkic, and Ace Bailey are also averaging in double figures, while Kyle Filipowski, Walter Clayton Jr, and Isaiah Collier have had some nice flashes as well.
While Utah owns the league’s 17th-ranked offensive rating, it has recorded the sixth-most points and second-most assists, largely due to its top-three pace. However, it’s been a completely different story on the other end. Utah has allowed the NBA’s most points per game and ranks dead last in defensive rating and opponent field-goal percentage. The Jazz also allow the second-highest opponent three-point percentage.
Warriors at Jazz Prediction, Pick
These are two teams with very different outlooks on the season. The Warriors are desperate to capitalize on Stephen Curry’s fleeting championship window. While Curry continues to elevate the players around him, Golden State lacks the adequate talent to resemble a true contender — especially after Butler hit the sidelines.
Meanwhile, the Jazz are young and hungry. They have won some games that the organization might not be too happy about, and they’re capable of competing with any team on a nightly basis. While 15 wins don’t jump out on paper, Utah’s record includes victories over the Timberwolves, Spurs, Pistons, and Rockets.
Golden State is 2-0 this season against the Jazz. However, Utah had its chances in both matchups and had amassed double-digit leads before the Warriors ultimately stormed back.
The Jazz are playing the second night of a back-to-back but have won their last three games as underdogs while playing at a rest disadvantage. Golden State has also failed to cover the spread in its last four games as road favorites against Western Conference opponents.
Don’t expect this undermanned Warriors squad to cover a spread as lofty as 8.5 points. For all of the Jazz’s flaws, they have plenty of young, hungry talent that can put up a battle on any given night. Utah’s defensive issues are glaring, but if it can limit Curry, the entire Warriors’ offense may stall.
Expect this matchup to remain competitive throughout. I wouldn’t count on an outright upset, but Utah should have enough juice to cover the 8.5-point spread. The Jazz have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games, and they should follow suit against the vulnerable Warriors.
