The Atlanta Hawks have just shook off a four-game losing streak, turning the momentum around into three consecutive wins. On Wednesday evening, they’re shipping up to Boston to take on the Celtics, who still sit second in the Eastern Conference amid an unexpectedly successful first half of the campaign. These teams just faced off twice earlier this month, splitting those outings with one game apiece. Who emerges with a win tonight?
Here’s a Hawks vs. Celtics prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s game.
Hawks vs. Celtics prediction, preview
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are 23-25 as they look to regain positioning in the Eastern Conference after dropping in the standings over the last couple of weeks. The good news is that momentum is building after winning three straight contests, but tonight’s game and the next against the Rockets could wind up digging a deeper hole in the climb back to the .500 mark.
Atlanta plays at the second-highest pace with a -0.9 NETRTG, which ranks 19th in the NBA. The Hawks score plenty of points, averaging 117.8 PPG (eighth) as efficiency remains a strong suit — they’re at 47.5% from the field overall and 37.1% from deep, ranking top-eight in both FGM and 3PM per game. The team also paces the league with 31.1 assists per game with the best AST/FGM and fourth-best AST/TO ratio as well, so ball movement and limiting sloppy turnovers are also integral to the offensive identity. However, these strengths still don’t cover up the unit’s weaknesses. The Hawks post 51.1 rebounds per game (25th) and are one of the worst teams on the offensive glass. Beyond the rebounding struggles, the defensive talent lags behind as Atlanta gives up 118.7 PPG (25th) while allowing an eFG% of 55.0% to opponents (25th).
Jalen Johnson paces the Hawks’ roster in all three major categories with 23.0 points, 10.4 rebounds and 7.9 assists while shooting a hair over 50% from the field. The closest thing he has to a co-star is Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a 27-year-old guard who deserves to find himself in the MIP Award discussion with a career-best 20.3 PPG in a featured role. Veteran CJ McCollum has also contributed 18.0 points and 3.9 assists per contest over his eight games since coming to Atlanta in the Trae Young trade as well, and while his shooting splits aren’t the best, he’s a +37 in his stint here. Center Onyeka Okongwu posts 16.2 points and 7.9 rebounds per contest, and Dyson Daniels pitches in 11.8 PPG with 6.2 assists and 1.8 steals.
Boston Celtics
This was supposed to be a retooling year for the Celtics while operating without superstar Jayson Tatum in the wake of his Achilles injury last postseason. Instead, head coach Joe Mazzula has put forth a masterclass to get this team to 29-17, second in the conference and firmly in the postseason mix.
Boston ranks dead last in pace but has a NETRTG of +6.9, good for third in the entire NBA. A standout defense is the key to success for this group, allowing just 109.9 PPG (second) while maintaining top-five marks in points allowed in the paint and on the fast break. The Celtics control the tempo but also hold opponents to the third-lowest shooting percentage at just 44.7%, also ranking ninth in rebounding with 54.7 per game. On offense, they’re not quite at the top of the Association but the results remain difficult to deny there as well. The C’s average 116.6 PPG (13th), and while they’re 29th in assists with 24.0 per contest, they do have the seventh-best AST/TO ratio. Boston fires away from deep with the second-most 3PA and 3PM, shooting 36.9% from downtown and 47.0% overall.
The efforts of Jaylen Brown in a featured role have not gone unnoticed as the star posts a career-best 29.6 PPG while leading the league in shot attempts, also pulling down 6.8 rebounds a night. Derrick White and Payton Pritchard are at 17.6 PTS/5.4 AST and 16.8 PTS/5.3 AST respectively, and fellow guard Anfernee Simons drops 13.9 PPG off the bench. Starting big man and leading rebounder Neemias Queta is doubtful to play, and fellow center Luka Garza is also questionable as well. With both dealing with illness, there may be a notable lack of frontcourt power tonight.
Hawks vs. Celtics pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Celtics as 6.5-point home favorites tonight with -230 odds on the Moneyline. The Hawks are +190 ML underdogs with the game total set at 231.5 points. Betting splits show 87% of straight wagers on Boston to win with bettors split 50/50 on the total.
These teams met twice earlier in the month, with the Hawks winning the first battle 119-115 on the road before the Celtics took the second 132-106. It’s notable that both of those games went over tonight’s total of 231.5 points, especially since this makes for another clash between sides at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of pace.
Given the potential lack of their two leading centers tonight, I’m hesitant to take the C’s to cover or win outright. Boston could find itself severely undermanned in the frontcourt against an Atlanta squad with two excellent rebounders in Johnson and Okongwu, so that factor alone could present significant issues for the home team. I do, however, believe that would greatly benefit the Hawks and allow them to stay in this game even if shots aren’t falling at as high of a rate as usual against a very good defense, so I feel fine — if not almost enthused — at the proposition of taking Atlanta to cover tonight.
Pick your poison, but you can’t go wrong with either of these picks. Personally, I lean slightly towards the over on the total.
Top pick: Over 231.5 points (-110)
