The semifinals of the Australian Open continue early on Thursday morning for American viewers. In the second women’s semifinal, Jessica Pegula takes on Elena Rybakina. The match begins at 4:40. a.m. ET.
Rybakina is -222 on the moneyline, while Pegula is +179. This is my best bet to target on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Pegula vs. Rybakina match.
Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina Preview
Jessica Pegula has pulled out back-to-back massive wins against fellow Americans Madison Keys and Amanda Anisimova. Pegula is now in just her third career Grand Slam semifinal, and her first outside of the United States. At 31 years old, she is still seeking her first major title. Pegula has always been a great player, but she has never lived up to expectations in the Grand Slams. With her second consecutive Grand Slam semifinal appearance, that narrative is certainly shifting. However, Pegula will not be satisfied with anything other than lifting a first-place trophy this weekend. She has been playing fantastic tennis so far in this tournament and has yet to drop a set. This will be a massive test against Elena Rybakina, but Pegula has a real shot to make her second career major final.
Elena Rybakina has arguably played the best tennis of any woman in this tournament so far. All four women in the semifinals have yet to drop a set so far in Melbourne, so they’ve all been brilliant. However, Rybakina has been truly demolishing her competition. She beat Elise Mertens 6-1, 6-3 in the fourth round, then beat Iga Swiatek 7-5, 6-1 in the quarterfinals. Rybakina seems ready to win her second career Grand Slam title. When she broke onto the scene in 2022 by winning at Wimbledon, it seemed as if she might be one of the next big things in the sport. However, she has not won a major title since then. She has only made it to one major final since then, and that came in 2023 here in Australia.
Rybakina has been playing consistently great tennis the past several years, ending the year in the top six in the world rankings each of the past three years. It seems about time that she adds a second Grand Slam trophy to her legacy to back up the great play.
Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this match is for Elena Rybakina to win in straight sets. Both Pegula and Rybakina have been excellent so far, but Rybakina has been playing some of the best tennis of her life. Rybakina’s serve has been on another level, in particular. She has 35 aces so far in this tournament, eight more than the next-best woman. Despite that first serve being so powerful, she has also been excellent when forced to her second serve. She is winning 61% of her second-serve points in this tournament, the most of any of the four women in the semifinals.
These two have split the six matches that they have played against each other over the years. However, they have only played once in the past two years, and that came just a couple of months ago in the semifinals of the WTA Finals. Rybakina won that match in three sets. Pegula will struggle to face Rybakina’s elite serve. That makes Pegula’s service matches must-wins for her. Pegula is not the most consistent player on tour with her first serve. She will need to be sharp because Rybakina is second only to Aryna Sabalenka so far in this tournament in second-serve return points won. If Rybakina keeps up her serving dominance and can jump on second serves from Pegula, this could be a dominant win for Rybakina.
