The semifinals of the Australian Open continue early on Thursday morning for American viewers. In the first women’s semifinal, Aryna Sabalenka takes on Elina Svitolina. The match begins at 3:30. a.m. ET.
Sabalenka is -378 on the moneyline, while Svitolina is +297. This is my best bet to target on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Sabalenka vs. Svitolina match.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina Preview
Aryna Sabalenka is looking to make it back-to-back major wins after winning the 2025 US Open to end last year. Sabalenka has been the dominant force on the women’s side of this tournament over the past few years. She won both of her first career majors in Australia in 2023 and 2024. Last year, she made it to the final but fell to Madison Keys, one match short of the three-peat. It was a frustrating season for Sabalenka prior to the US Open. She lost the Australian Open Final, the Roland Garros Final and in the Wimbledon semifinals. She was by far the best player in the sport, but was on the brink of ending the season without a major title. Her dominance at the US Open, culminating in a trophy, has her feeling confident to start this year. Sabalenka has been dominant so far in this tournament, making it five matches without dropping a set.
Elina Svitolina is coming off an amazing upset win over Coco Gauff. She dominated Gauff 6-1, 6-2 in the quarterfinals. Just like Sabalenka, Svitolina has yet to drop a set through her first five matches in this tournament. Svitolina has been a consistently great player over the past decade, but she has never been able to compete with the best in the game. Prior to this tournament, she had 13 Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances. Of those 13 appearances, she lost 10 times, only advancing to three semifinals. Of those three semifinals, Svitolina lost all three, never making a final. This would be the biggest win of Svitolina’s career if she could upset the World No. 1 and get into her first-ever Grand Slam final.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this match is for Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets. Both of these women have been flawless up to this point, failing to drop a set. However, Sabalenka is on another level of dominance than anyone Svitolina has faced so far. Sabalenka has made six consecutive Grand Slam finals on hardcourt and won four of those six. This is the biggest match of Elina Svitolina’s life, while Sabalenka has now been in this position, at a Grand Slam semifinal, 14 times before.
The biggest concern for Svitolina is her serve. Last year, Svitolina ranked 269th on the WTA in first-serve percentage, only getting 57.4% of her first serves in play. So far at the Australian Open, nobody has won more second-serve return points than Aryna Sabalenka. If Svitolina is consistently going to her second serve, Sabalenka will punish her as no other woman in the world can. Sabalenka has won four straight matches head-to-head against Svitolina, and three of those came in straight sets. The two have only faced each other at a Grand Slam once, in the 2023 Roland Garros quarterfinals, and Sabalenka won in straight sets. She should continue her hardcourt Grand Slam dominance and make it to a seventh consecutive Grand Slam final on this surface.
