The Virginia Cavaliers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish face off as part of Tuesday’s college basketball slate. This will be an ACC conference battle, but the teams have gotten off to different starts to the season.
Looking at the odds, Virginia enters as an 8.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 140.5.
Virginia vs. Notre Dame prediction, preview
Virginia enters this matchup with a 16-3 record on the season and is 5-2 in ACC Conference play. The Cavaliers’ three losses have come at the hands of North Carolina in the previous game, Virginia Tech in triple overtime, and Butler. The Cavaliers have a ranked win over Louisville and respectable wins over Texas, Dayton, and Maryland as well. They have gone 11-6-2 against the spread so far this season, and the game total has gone under in 11 of their 19 games.
Ryan Odom has maintained a high standard of play in his first year as head coach. Virginia is scoring 83.8 points per game, which ranks 52nd among D1 teams. They also rank 15th in offensive rating, attempt the 37th-most three-pointers per game, and connect at the 44th-best rate from the perimeter. Defensively, opponents are scoring just 68.0 points per game against the, which is the 50th-best rate. The Cavaliers rank 57th in defensive rating, 10th in opponent field goal percentage, 28th in opponent three-point percentage, and tally the second-most blocked shots per game.
Thijs De Ridder headlines the production for the Cavaliers, posting averages of 16.3 points and 6.3 rebounds while shooting 40.0% on three-point attempts. Malik Thomas adds 13.5 points and 4.3 rebounds of his own, while Chance Mallory is the lone other player to average in double figures at 10.2 points, along with 4.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists. Sam Lewis, Jacari White, Johann Grunloh, and Ugonna Onyenso also play notable roles in the rotation.
Notre Dame enters with an 11-9 record and has gone just 2-5 in ACC play. The Fighting Irish are coming off a victory over Boston College in the previous game, which snapped a five-game losing skid before this. Their most impressive wins have come against Stanford and TCU, and their most concerning loss came against Purdue Fort Wayne. The Fighting Irish have gone 10-10 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 12 of their 20 games played.
Most of the issues for Micah Shrewsberry’s squad have come on the offensive end. Notre Dame is averaging just 72.9 points per game, which ranks 268th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. The Irish rank 187th in offensive rating, 224th in field goal percentage, 123rd in three-point percentage, and 323rd in assists per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 70.1 points per game against the Fighting Irish, which ranks 95th. They rank 187th in defensive rating, 97th in opponent field goal percentage, and 85th in opponent three-point percentage.
Markus Burton headlines the scoring for Notre Dame, averaging 18.5 points, 3.7 assists, and 2.8 rebounds per game. Jalen Haralson adds 14.7 points and 3.6 rebounds of his own, while Braden Shrewsberry is the lone other player averaging double figures at 11.2 points per game while shooting a team-best 41.1% from beyond the three-point arc. Cole Certa, Carson Towt, and Sir Mohammed also play key roles in the rotation.
Virginia vs. Notre Dame pick, best bet
It is time to start recognizing Virginia as one of the best teams in the country. Unlike during the prime Tony Bennett era of Cavaliers basketball, this iteration of the team gets the job done on both sides of the ball. They still have a high standard of defensive expectations, but Virginia can also push the scoring to a level that opponents struggle to match.
Expect Notre Dame to be unable to keep pace offensively with what Virginia will put forth. Thijs De Ridder will provide a tough matchup challenge for Notre Dame, especially without a clear defensive matchup for his 6-foot-9 frame and perimeter shooting ability. Virginia also plays more cohesive team basketball and does a nice job consistently creating good looks for each other.
While Notre Dame is coming off a victory over Boston College in the previous game, concern has only increased for the state of the program as the season has progressed. The Fighting Irish had lost five consecutive games before this and have dropped six of their last eight games overall. This includes coming up short against teams like Virginia Tech, Clemson, California, and Purdue Fort Wayne. Virginia will be just the third ranked matchup for Notre Dame this season. The Fighting Irish deserve credit for hanging with Houston in a 66-56 loss back in November, but were steamrolled 91-69 by North Carolina less than a week ago.
Notre Dame has failed to cover the spread in five consecutive matchups, and I do not foresee this changing in this one. It is going to take a much-improved effort to stick with a team of Virginia’s caliber, but they have shown no indication of this being the case. Expect the Cavaliers to look like the better team on both sides of the ball and produce a comfortable victory in this game. Don’t expect them to have any trouble extending the lead to double digits, and to ultimately cover the 8.5-point spread in this ACC showdown.
