Football fans will be treated to a show on Wednesday afternoon, the final day of UEFA Champions League League Phase action. All 36 teams in the competition will take the pitch at the same time (3 p.m. ET), and as goals are scored in 18 different stadiums, supercomputers will be whirring to determine, in real time, which 24 teams will move on to the knockout phase, and which 12 will be eliminated. For most of the 36 teams, there’s plenty at stake.
Arguably no game carries higher stakes than the match between Chelsea and Napoli at the Maradona Stadium. The Blues currently sit in eighth (in an eight-way tie on 13 points) and can clinch a bye to the Round of 16 if they win and they aren’t surpassed on goal difference by multiple of Barcelona, Sporting CP, Manchester City, Atlético Madrid, and Atalanta. Partenopei, meanwhile, sit 25th — in a five-way tie on eight points — and should advance with a win (as long as at least two of PSV, Athletic Club, Olympiacos, and Copenhagen fail to win). They can also advance with a draw or loss, but the tiebreakers are much less straightforward.
Chelsea is a +130 favorite to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Napoli is +230. There are +250 odds that the teams will split the points.
Napoli vs. Chelsea prediction, pick
Despite the Blues having a more difficult schedule, per Opta Analyst’s power rankings, they’ve had the easier time in the League Phase, most notably picking up all three points at Stamford Bridge against Spanish champions Barcelona. Partenopei haven’t necessarily been bad, but they’ve been inconsistent, pairing a win over Sporting with a defeat against nearly-eliminated Benfica and a blowout against PSV. If the Napoli squad that beat Sporting shows up, it could beat Chelsea, but the peak version of the Blues has shown up more frequently in the Champions League.
At its best, Chelsea features one of the best midfield trios in Europe in Moisés Caicedo, Enzo Fernández, and Cole Palmer, and while Palmer’s injuries have limited him to only 12 games and four goals in the Premier League and one start in the Champions League, he practiced Monday, a good sign for his availability on Wednesday. Regardless of Palmer’s fitness, the Blues have both youth and depth on their side: nine different players have scored at least one Champions League goal, and all were born in 2001 or later. Together, these youngsters have combined to form an attack that has recorded the 12th-most shots on target per 90 minutes and been the 11th-most clinical team relative to the number of expected goals produced. Chelsea has been especially stellar defensively, allowing the second-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes and winning an above-average number of tackles + interceptions. Robert Sánchez’s 72.2% save percentage ranks merely 15th in the Champions League, but above-average is sufficient if the Blues continue to be stingy in the back.
Partenopei has been extremely disappointing in the attack. They’ve scored just six goals in seven matches, the second-fewest of any team that has yet to be eliminated, and they’re coming off of a 3-0 throttling at the hands of Juventus in Serie A, where they sit fourth and don’t have a goal-scoring issue. Scott McTominay (four goals from six shots on target) has been fine in the Champions League, but without the distributional prowess of Kevin de Bruyne, Napoli has struggled to generate high-quality looks in the first place. Partenopei ranks seventh-to-last in shots on target per 90 minutes, fourth-to-last in on-target percentage and 14th-to-last in expected goals. They haven’t been able to make up for it defensively, giving up the 15th-most shots on target and winning ground duels at the third-lowest rate. Vanja Milinković-Savić ranks just 20th in save percentage.
Napoli’s goal will be to control possession and force Chelsea to play on the counter, which it has done to limited success in its matches against the strongest teams on its schedule. But unlike Arsenal, Manchester City, and Bayern Münich — three teams that controlled possession against the Blues and earned at least a point — Partenopei have been merely average at playing the offsides trap and have tied for the 11th-most fast-breaks allowed. Plus, all but one of their goals has come from a set piece, and Chelsea is one of four teams not to have allowed a set-piece goal.
