Big Ten rivals are set to clash this evening in New Jersey. #7 Michigan State (18-2, 8-1) has its eyes set on another deep postseason run under legendary head coach Tom Izzo. That means taking care of business against inferior competition, easier said than done for the Spartans. Rutgers (9-11, 2-7) has had a tough go of things. Still, the Scarlet Knights have performed much better at home this season.
Who has the edge in this intra-conference showdown? Michigan State enters as 14.5-point favorites (-108) over Rutgers. The total is set at 137.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Tuesday’s game between the Spartans and Scarlet Knights.
Michigan State vs. Rutgers prediction, preview
Even the most casual college basketball fans know what to expect from an Izzo-led squad at this point. Hard-nosed defense, a patient offense, and high basketball IQ are just a few staples. This year’s Spartans fit the bill; per KenPom, they own college basketball’s best adjusted defensive efficiency margin (88.8). On the other end of the floor, it’s not quite as impressive. Michigan State has posted the Big Ten’s eighth-best offensive rating (117.4). Still, this remains an incredibly well-balanced squad.
This is a group that loves taking it to the rack. MSU is only taking 21.2 three-point attempts per game. Leading the team in scoring is guard Jeremy Fears, also one of the nation’s premier passers. His 8.8 assists per game ranks as the nation’s second-best mark, behind Purdue’s Braden Smith. Fears is joined by co-star Jaxon Kohler. The power forward is putting up 13.2 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. His tenacity on the boards sets the tone for this entire roster. Michigan State owns a 59.6% rebounding percentage, second-best in all of college basketball. Fellow bigs Coen Carr and Carson Cooper help to form an intimidating front court.
In many ways, Rutgers plays a similar brand of basketball to the Spartans. After all, Steve Pikiell’s crew operates at a glacial pace while attempting to limit the opposition. Unfortunately, the talent available in Piscataway is much different. That’s especially true on offense; only two Scarlet Knights are averaging double-digit points per game. If they’re going to keep this one close, it might take a Herculean effort from Tariq Francis. The junior leads the program with 15.9 points on 44/32/88 shooting splits.
The most concerning aspect of Rutgers’ season is that the team doesn’t do anything particularly well. On KenPom, the Scarlet Knights are +0.36 in adjusted efficiency margin, 160th in college basketball. That’s the worst mark among all Big Ten schools. A troubling lack of depth, especially on offense, leaves this unit dependent on Francis and forward Dylan Grant. If either member of that duo has an off night, this could become a blowout.
Michigan State vs. Rutgers pick, best bet
When looking over the numbers, Michigan State is a much better version of Rutgers. The tough-minded roster Pikiell is attempting to build looks somewhat shabby compared to the real deal. The Spartans are winning games by an average of 16.4 points, tenth-most in the nation. In comparison, the Scarlet Knights lost their last contest, at home vs. Indiana, by 23 points. Another dominant MSU victory could be in store on Tuesday.
