If the UEFA Champions League’s expansion to 36 teams was meant to increase the stakes on the final Matchday, it certainly did its job. 30 of the 36 teams still have something at stake, as only Arsenal and Bayern Münich have secured their places in the Round of 16 and only Kairat Almaty, Villarreal, Slavia Prague, and Eintracht Frankfurt are guaranteed to be eliminated. All 18 games will be played at once, with kickoff slated for 3 p.m. ET.
One team that was almost assured of elimination when the competition started — they had the fourth-longest odds of advancement — is now almost guaranteed to move on. Qarabağ will have a tough final League Phase test when it travels to face Liverpool at Anfield, but the Azerbaijani outfit can clinch a spot in the last 24 with a win over the Reds, and at least six teams would have to win for the Horsemen to be eliminated. Liverpool is chasing the top eight, and a point would be enough if four of the eight teams on 13 points fail to win.
The Reds are -800 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Qarabağ is +1700. There are +850 odds that the teams will split the points.
Liverpool vs. Qarabag prediction, pick
Liverpool’s inconsistency in the Premier League has carried over somewhat to the Champions League, as the same team that beat Real Madrid 1-0 also lost 4-1 to PSV Eindhoven. All in all, though, Arne Slot’s side is starting to figure it out: the Reds had been unbeaten in all competitions for 13 matches before eventually losing 3-2 to Bournemouth in the Premier League. Qarabağ has played tough against plenty of teams, but prior to a late winner against already-eliminated Frankfurt, it had picked up just one point in its four prior matches and hadn’t won since picking up back-to-back wins in the first two matches. The Horsemen are only in second in the Azerbaijan Premier League after winning it in 11 of the previous 12 seasons.
Liverpool’s talent speaks for itself. The Reds’ squad is worth a combined 1.04 billion Euros on Transfermarkt, and their 14th-most valuable player (a tie between Mohamed Salah and Conor Bradley) is worth more than Qarabağ’s 28.65-million Euro squad. Alexander Isak’s broken leg hurts Liverpool’s ceiling, but Hugo Ekitiké has been the more important summer striker signing either way, and its a defensive midfielder, Dominik Szoboszlai, who leads the team in goals in the UCL. All in all, the attack has been fine, ranking 11th in goals and fourth in expected goals, and it could improve its efficiency if Florian Wirtz continues to find his form. Defensively, the Reds have also been sharp, allowing the fifth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes and the second-fewest expected goals while winning aerial duels at the fourth-highest rate. They’ve been the 10th-worst goalkeeping team, in part because first-choice shot-stopper Alisson has missed three matches, but they should be better now that the Brazilian is back between the sticks.
Liverpool’s impressive raw stats don’t mean the Horsemen doesn’t have a chance; teams don’t amass 10 points in the Champions League by accident. Qarabağ has had two of this tournament’s breakout stars, Camilo Durán and Leandro Andrade. Durán’s brace against Eintracht was critical in helping the Horsemen pick up a thrilling win, and Andrade scored one of the team’s three in their win over Benfica, their first ever in the Champions League. All in all, eight different players — including Behlul Mustafazada, the first Azerbaijani player to score in the UCL — have found the back of the net, combining for just one fewer goal than the Reds. All in all, Qarabağ has netted 4.06 more goals than expected, which suggests both good fortune and clinical finishing. The Horsemen haven’t been great defensively, allowing 15 goals because Mateusz Kochalski ranks 12th-to-last in save percentage, but they’ve won ground duels at the fifth-highest rate.
If Qarabağ can win the ball back and strike on the counter while avoiding set pieces — it has given up the fourth-most expected goals in such situations — it could have a chance. That makes the Horsemen a bad fit against Liverpool, which has scored a competition-high six goals in such situations and has among the highest pass completion rates. But by the same token, the Reds don’t have the counters for some of Qarabağ’s tactics: the Horsemen love to play aggressively when they do get possession, attempting among the most through balls, and Liverpool ranks near the bottom in ground duel win rate and clearances. This 2.5-goal spread is utterly disrespectful to Qarabağ, which hasn’t had a three-goal loss in any competition since January 30, 2025.
