When the LA Clippers were 6-21 on December 20, Tyronn Lue set the goal for his team to reach .500 by the end of the season, since their unprotected first-round pick will go to the Oklahoma City Thunder in June. When he made his bold proclamation, Lue certainly couldn’t have expected the Clippers to be able to reach .500 by the All-Star break, but with nine games remaining until then, LA just needs to go 6-3. It is 15-3 in its last 18 games and has risen to the West’s 10th seed at 21-24.
At 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday night, the Clippers will face one of the teams they jumped in their recent rise up the standings: the Utah Jazz. Utah has been better than expected this season, but at 15-31, it looks as if the rebuild will continue for at least another season.
Kawhi Leonard (knee) is questionable for LA in addition to its other long-term absences, and while Lauri Markkanen (return to play conditioning) is available, Keyonte George will rest for the Jazz. Jusuf Nurkić (illness) is out.
The Clippers are 8.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-325 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 234.5. Utah is +260 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the day’s final contest and offer my prediction.
LA Clippers at Utah Jazz preview, prediction
Since the beginning of LA’s winning stretch, Leonard has played at an MVP level, averaging 31.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 2.4 steals per game on ludicrous 51-43-92 shooting splits, and though the Clippers’ overall mediocrity and his injuries are likely to keep him receiving serious consideration for the season-long award, having a shoo-in Hall of Famer playing the best offensive season of his career makes the Clippers an extremely dangerous Play-In Tournament opponent. Either Leonard or James Harden — who’s averaging 25.6 points and 8.1 assists per game — will almost certainly represent an All-Star team at the Intuit Dome in a few weeks.
As for the Jazz, it makes sense why Will Hardy would sit George if their goal is to keep the top-eight-protected first-round pick that could go to Oklahoma City. After losing his starting spot to Isaiah Collier in the second half of last season, George has become one of the NBA’s most improved players, averaging 24.2 points and 6.6 assists per game on solid 46-37-90 shooting splits, and he’s demonstrated his tough shot-making ability time and time again. Markkanen’s recent seven-game absence — the result of an illness that reportedly cost him nearly 10 pounds of his already slim frame — was also unsurprising in the context of Utah’s first-round pick: at 27.9 points per game, he has an even stronger All-Star case than George.
Clippers at Jazz pick, best bet
The biggest factor in this game is whether or not Leonard will suit up, as LA has had the equivalent of the league’s third-best offense with him on the floor and the equivalent of its 20th-best with him off. Defensively, his impact is nearly as large: the Clippers would drop from 20th to 28th without him. Given that he’s played in each of the last two games and that LA won’t play again until Friday, it feels like a certainty that he’ll suit up and play around 25 minutes. It’s possible that Lue could want to conserve his body for a more pivotal matchup, but the Jazz have had a better net rating with Markkanen on the floor than LA has with Leonard off. In fact, Markkanen’s on-off swing (15.3 points per 100 possessions) is the third-largest in the league behind only Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo, with Leonard ranking 13th.
With or without Leonard, the Clippers should be able to feast against Utah’s defense, which has been two points per 100 possessions worse than any other team’s this season. Markkanen might be able to help somewhat in that regard, but he’s not a game-changer: with him on the floor, the Jazz have merely had the equivalent of the fourth-worst defense, a number that has skyrocketed to an eye-popping 129.2 without him. Similarly, George’s absence should help Utah’s defense, but he’s had a greater positive impact on the Jazz’s offense than Markkanen has.
LA’s goal should be to drive: Utah has had one of the worst rim-protecting units this season, and while they haven’t gotten downhill very often, the Clippers have been more accurate once they get there. In order to mitigate their disadvantages inside, the Jazz will need to be aggressive on the boards, and with Markkanen — the tallest listed power forward in the league at seven-foot-one — on the floor, their total rebounding percentage has risen by 4.8 percentage points, though it’s dropped significantly without Nurkić. Utah’s secondary goal will be to force turnovers, but it has been even worse in transition on both sides of the ball than LA, which has one of the oldest rosters in basketball.
The Clippers haven’t had the healthiest shot diet, attempting the eighth-fewest wide-open threes per game this season, but that should be better against the Jazz, who have given up the most uncontested tries despite contesting the third-most threes overall. In particular, that should advantage Leonard, who’s been the league’s 14th-best shooter relative to expectations. Utah could have it a little harder: across the last 18 games, LA has allowed a below-average number of wide-open threes while contesting the 10th-most triples. Plus, the Jazz’s best three-point shooter relative to expectations (George) is out, and Utah will miss his off-ball perimeter gravity. George also leads the team in shooting and creation leverage, which will especially hurt the team in crunch time if this game gets there.
The final factor is altitude: because the Delta Center sits at 4,268 feet above sea level, the Jazz typically have a massive home-court advantage. That hasn’t entirely been the case this season, as Utah has only been 4.7 points per 100 possessions better at home and has actually played better defense on the road, but in a larger sample size, Delta Center’s altitude has typically led to lower-scoring games across the last few seasons. Plus, the Clippers have been nearly six points per 100 possessions worse offensively on the road. With the defensively elite Leonard likely to play and the offense-first George slated to sit, I’ll take this to be a relatively low-scoring game by Jazz standards.
